Wed 11 Nov
For experienced punters

Value bets tomorrow

Prices that look too long: our numbers give these outcomes a clearly better chance than the bookmaker does. Expect a lower hit rate and bigger odds – this is a long-run approach with small stakes.

SpainCopa Del Rey2 matchesTable ›

Tarancón Levante 16%20.00X18%9.30276%1.09 0.9–2.8xG GGBoth teams to score 57%@2.15
Navalcarnero Real Betis 110%15.00X19%8.00271%1.14 1.1–2.8xG GGBoth teams to score 58%@1.91

AfricaAfrica Cup Of Nations Qualification3 matchesTable ›

Equatorial Guinea Zimbabwe 144%2.05X24%3.06233%3.77 1.3–1.1xG 2Zimbabwe to win 33%@3.77
Madagascar Guinea-Bissau 126%3.11X24%3.06251%2.32 0.9–1.4xG 2Guinea-Bissau to win 51%@2.32
Benin Central African Republic 161%1.56X20%3.65219%6.09 1.6–0.7xG GGBoth teams to score 50%@2.28

EuropeUEFA Nations League5 matchesTable ›

Armenia Cyprus 142%2.30X23%3.25236%3.25 1.2–1.1xG 2Cyprus to win 36%@3.25
Türkiye Belgium 122%3.90X19%4.10259%1.80 1.1–2.0xG 2Belgium to win 59%@1.80
Italy France 112%4.33X23%4.00264%1.75 0.8–2.1xG 2France to win 64%@1.75
Albania Finland 157%1.90X23%3.40221%4.33 1.7–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.10
Czechia Spain 19%13.00X18%8.00273%1.18 0.9–2.6xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.00

ColombiaPrimera B1 matchTable ›

Real Cundinamarca Real Cartagena 135%2.54X24%2.89241%2.64 1.1–1.3xG 2Real Cartagena to win 41%@2.64

MexicoLiga De Expansión MX1 matchTable ›

Piratas CA La Paz 160%1.81X23%3.70217%3.80 2.0–1.0xG 1Piratas to win 60%@1.81

MexicoLiga MX Femenil2 matchesTable ›

América W Toluca W 170%1.12X16%9.00214%13.00 2.9–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.80
Pachuca W Monterrey W 124%3.20X13%3.60263%1.90 1.3–2.3xG 2Monterrey W to win 63%@1.90

WorldFriendlies6 matchesTable ›

New Zealand India 173%1.27X20%4.7527%9.00 2.4–0.7xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.00
Singapore U23 Vietnam U23 19%12.25X17%4.90274%1.20 0.4–1.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 52%@2.15
Scotland U21 Ukraine U21 125%2.88X21%3.46255%2.06 1.3–2.0xG 2Ukraine U21 to win 55%@2.06
Uzbekistan Russia 127%3.70X22%3.34251%1.98 1.2–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@1.92
Lithuania Suriname 130%2.62X39%3.10232%2.40 1.1–1.2xG XDraw 39%@3.10
Malta Eswatini 166%1.50X21%4.20213%4.75 1.8–0.6xG GGBoth teams to score 51%@2.20

EgyptSecond League2 matchesTable ›

Masar Tersana 142%2.08X24%2.81234%3.50 1.3–1.1xG 2Tersana to win 34%@3.50
Dayrout Proxy 115%4.10X22%2.96262%1.85 0.6–1.6xG 2Proxy to win 62%@1.85

EuropeUEFA U21 Championship Qualification1 matchTable ›

Iceland U21 Greece U21 134%2.60X21%3.40245%2.35 1.4–1.7xG 2Greece U21 to win 45%@2.35

WorldCAF U23 Cup Of Nations1 matchTable ›

Tunisia U23 Gabon U23 162%1.43X21%4.05217%6.15 1.6–0.6xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 55%@1.93

North & Central AmericaCONCACAF Nations League3 matchesTable ›

Cayman Islands Guyana 112%35.00X14%15.50273%1.01 1.0–2.6xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@2.55
Barbados Guadeloupe 139%2.90X21%3.58240%2.20 1.5–1.5xG 1Barbados to win 39%@2.90
Bonaire Cuba 111%23.00X16%10.20273%1.06 1.0–2.7xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.28

ColombiaPrimera A4 matchesTable ›

Deportivo Pereira America de Cali 115%4.75X20%3.60265%1.75 0.7–1.9xG 2America de Cali to win 65%@1.75
Millonarios Alianza Valledupar 170%1.28X19%5.25211%11.00 2.1–0.7xG GGBoth teams to score 50%@2.20
Cucuta Jaguares 166%1.64X22%3.76211%4.75 2.0–0.8xG 1Cucuta to win 66%@1.64
Deportivo Cali Deportes Tolima 145%2.20X23%3.10232%3.30 1.3–1.0xG 2Deportes Tolima to win 32%@3.30

GuatemalaLiga Nacional1 matchTable ›

Aurora Mixco 160%1.92X20%3.30220%3.35 1.9–1.0xG 1Aurora to win 60%@1.92

Tomorrow's value bets at a glance

32 value bets at an average price of 2.28, with an average edge of 14% over the bookmaker. The biggest: Cayman Islands vs Guyana – Both teams to score at 2.55, where we rate the chance at 55% against the 39% the price implies. 1 are draws, the outcome bookmakers most often price too long.

At odds of 2.28 you need to win about 44% of bets just to break even. Over the last 30 days our value bets won 1,680 of 3,838 (44%). That is why value betting is judged over hundreds of bets, not one day.

Staking value bets

  • Keep each stake small and the same – around 1–2% of your betting bank.
  • Value bets work best as singles; stacking them in one slip multiplies the risk.
  • Check the price before you bet: if it has dropped below our fair odds, the value has gone.
  • Expect losing runs. A 35% hit rate means losing five in a row happens regularly.

What makes a value spot

Odds are chances in disguise: 2.50 means the bookmaker thinks roughly 40% (100 ÷ 2.50), with their margin on top. If our ratings put the same outcome at 46% or higher, the price is too generous – and backing generous prices consistently is how value betting pays over time.

Value bets are listed separately from our main predictions because they lose more often. The results record tracks both, so you can see how each performs.

Frequently asked questions

What makes a value bet?

Our chance must be at least 6% higher than the chance implied by the bookmaker's odds (chance × odds ≥ 1.06), at odds between 1.60 and 4.50.

Will value bets win more often?

No – they win less often than our main picks, because the prices are bigger. The aim is a profit over many bets, not a win every time. Stake small and stay consistent.

Why do draws appear here?

Draws are often under-priced by bookmakers in close games. When our numbers rate a draw clearly higher than its price, it shows up as value.