Wed 11 Nov

Equatorial Guinea v Zimbabwe: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Nuevo Estadio de Malabo

Equatorial Guinea

WLLD
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Zimbabwe

LWLW
Equatorial Guinea 44%Draw 24%Zimbabwe 33% Expected goals 1.32 – 1.08
65%
ZoraTips pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48

6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2

Value bet: Zimbabwe to win @ 3.77 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultEquatorial Guinea to win44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.09
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.74

Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification action on Thursday 12 November: Equatorial Guinea take on Zimbabwe at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo from 17:00 WAT. Equatorial Guinea sit 2nd with 8 points from 6 games, while Zimbabwe are 2nd on 9. The gap is just 1 point, so three points here could swap their places.

Form guide

Equatorial Guinea – form over the last 4: WLLD Most recently they beat Sierra Leone 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.5 per game.

Zimbabwe – form over the last 4: LWLW Most recently they lost to Congo DR 1–2 at home. They score 1.3 and concede 1.5 per game.

On form, Zimbabwe have the edge: 1.5 points a game against 1.0.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Equatorial Guinea 1.3 – 1.1 Zimbabwe in expected goals – roughly 2.4 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 39% for over 2.5, 51% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Equatorial Guinea 44% · draw 24% · Zimbabwe 33%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.20.
  • Value angle: Zimbabwe to win at 3.77 – we make it 33%, the price implies 27%.

ZoraTips prediction

We back Over 1.5 goals, rated at 65% confidence at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Equatorial Guinea 1–1 Zimbabwe. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Equatorial Guinea44%fair 2.28 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.06
Zimbabwe33%fair 3.07 · @3.77
2.40Expected goals
1.32Equatorial Guinea xG
1.08Zimbabwe xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%

From our goals model: Equatorial Guinea 1.3 – 1.1 Zimbabwe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultEquatorial Guinea to win44%2.282.05
Double chanceEither team to win76%1.311.32
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score51%1.982.20 ▲
Draw no betEquatorial Guinea (draw no bet)57%1.74–
Asian handicapZimbabwe +1 (Asian handicap)75%1.33–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals65%1.531.48
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals61%1.651.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals80%1.251.09
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals91%1.101.01
First team to scoreEquatorial Guinea to score first50%2.01–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time45%2.22–
Half-time / full-timeHT Equatorial Guinea / FT Equatorial Guinea24%4.12–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%11.74–

Recent results

Equatorial Guinea – last 4

WLLD
28 Sepvs Sierra Leone1–0W
24 Sep@ Congo DR0–2L
8 Junvs Comoros0–1L
31 Marvs Madagascar1–1D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Zimbabwe – last 4

LWLW
28 Sepvs Congo DR1–2L
24 Sep@ Sierra Leone3–2W
26 May@ Nigeria0–2L
31 Marvs Zambia U231–0W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Equatorial Guinea and Zimbabwe.

Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Algeria6510+1416
2Equatorial Guinea6222-38
3Togo6123-35
4Liberia6114-84

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
Ghana Somalia 176%1.05X18%10.2026%26.00 2.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.65
Congo DR Sierra Leone 171%1.20X17%5.75212%14.20 2.1–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.24
Guinea Eritrea 174%1.12X18%7.2028%17.50 2.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.52
Madagascar Guinea-Bissau 126%3.11X24%3.06251%2.32 0.9–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.41
Benin Central African Republic 161%1.56X20%3.65219%6.09 1.6–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.38
Cameroon Namibia 170%1.24X19%5.05211%13.30 1.8–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.20
Ivory Coast Gambia 174%1.18X16%6.20210%14.60 2.4–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.39
Senegal Sudan 176%1.07X17%8.9027%24.00 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.63

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.

Who will win Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

On our numbers Equatorial Guinea have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Zimbabwe 33%.

How many goals will there be in Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

Our predicted score is Equatorial Guinea 1–1 Zimbabwe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?

Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.