How ZoraTips works
From last night's results to today's tip in five steps – what we calculate, why, and how you can check us.
1. Every club gets two ratings
Each night we look back over roughly ten months of results and give every team an attack rating (goals scored compared with an average side in its competition) and a defence rating (goals conceded). Form matters to us, so a match from ten weeks ago counts half as much as one played last weekend. Teams with only a handful of games are pulled towards the average until they have played enough for their numbers to settle.
2. Ratings become expected goals
Home attack × away defence × the competition's home scoring rate gives the home side's expected goals, and the mirror image gives the away side's. That accounts for 45% of our goal estimate; a statistics feed adds 25% and the bookmakers' over/under line the remaining 30%, which brings in team news and line-ups we cannot see.
3. One grid prices every market
Both expected-goal numbers feed a grid of every scoreline from 0–0 to 7–7, with a small correction for the extra low-scoring draws real football produces. Add up the right cells and you have every market: match result, double chance, draw no bet, Asian handicap lines, over/under 0.5 to 4.5, both teams to score, first team to score, correct score, half-time and HT/FT. For the match result we blend 60% of our own numbers with 40% of the market price.
4. Picking the tip
A tip has to be likely and it has to pay. We look for the strongest chance that still has a real price of 1.15 or more, add a small bonus when the bookmaker pays more than our fair odds, and – when two markets are almost level – lean towards the match result or double chance. That single choice is the headline tip shown everywhere for that match.
5. Grading in public
Tips lock at kick-off and are settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the same way bookmakers settle. Extra time and penalties do not count; postponed or abandoned games are void. Asian handicap lines with a whole number can be refunded on an exact margin. First team to score is graded when the score shows who scored first and left ungraded when it cannot be told. Nothing is ever removed from the results archive.
Reading a confidence figure
- 75% and above – our strongest tips. Still expect roughly one in four to lose.
- 65–74% – solid tips, the backbone of our accumulators.
- 55–64% – a clear lean. Best as singles.
- Below 55% – close to a coin toss; shown for information, rarely a tip.
Fair odds and value
Fair odds = 100 ÷ confidence. A 60% tip is worth 1.67; if your bookmaker offers 1.90, the price is in your favour – that is value. Our value bets page lists games where the price beats our fair odds by at least 6%. Value tips lose more often than headline tips; they are about long-run return, not a high strike rate.
What our numbers cannot see
Ratings are built from results, so they react to injuries, transfers and new managers only as fast as the scoreboard does – the market price helps cover that gap. Weather, motivation at the end of a season and line-ups announced an hour before kick-off can all move a game. That is why every tip comes with a percentage, not a promise.
Bet within your limits
Set a budget before you start, keep stakes small and never try to win back a loss. ZoraTips is for adults (18+) only – our responsible gambling page lists free, confidential help.