Wed 11 Nov

Madagascar v Guinea-Bissau: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · George V Stadium

Madagascar

DLLD
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Guinea-Bissau

WWD
Madagascar 26%Draw 24%Guinea-Bissau 51% Expected goals 0.92 – 1.44
66%
ZoraTips pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.41

6/10Rating
1.41Odds
2

Value bet: Guinea-Bissau to win @ 2.32 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultGuinea-Bissau to win51% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.99
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.09

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Madagascar host Guinea-Bissau in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification on Thursday 12 November, kicking off at 17:00 WAT at George V Stadium. Madagascar sit 4th with 2 points from 6 games, while Guinea-Bissau are 3rd on 5. The gap is just 3 points, so three points here could swap their places.

Form guide

Madagascar – form over the last 4: DLLD Most recently they drew with Tanzania 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up: 0.8 per game.

Guinea-Bissau – form over the last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Nigeria 3–0 at home. 2.0 goals per match shows an attack in good shape. 2 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

On form, Guinea-Bissau have the edge: 2.3 points a game against 0.5.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Madagascar 0.9 – 1.4 Guinea-Bissau in expected goals – roughly 2.4 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 41% for over 2.5, 54% for both teams to score.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Madagascar 26% · draw 24% · Guinea-Bissau 51%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.99.
  • Value angle: Guinea-Bissau to win at 2.32 – we make it 51%, the price implies 43%.

ZoraTips prediction

We back Over 1.5 goals, rated at 66% confidence at odds of 1.41. Predicted score: Madagascar 1–1 Guinea-Bissau. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Madagascar26%fair 3.89 · @3.11
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.06
Guinea-Bissau51%fair 1.97 · @2.32
2.36Expected goals
0.92Madagascar xG
1.44Guinea-Bissau xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%
1–113%
0–210%
0–09%
1–29%
1–09%

From our goals model: Madagascar 0.9 – 1.4 Guinea-Bissau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGuinea-Bissau to win51%1.972.32 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win76%1.311.32
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score54%1.861.99 ▲
Draw no betGuinea-Bissau (draw no bet)66%1.51–
Asian handicapMadagascar +1 (Asian handicap)68%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals66%1.511.41
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals59%1.681.53
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals79%1.271.14
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals90%1.111.01
First team to scoreGuinea-Bissau to score first55%1.81–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time45%2.22–
Half-time / full-timeHT Guinea-Bissau / FT Guinea-Bissau29%3.43–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29%11.09–

Recent results

Madagascar – last 4

DLLD
29 Sepvs Tanzania1–1D
25 Sep@ Nigeria1–2L
2 Jun@ Morocco0–4L
31 Mar@ Equatorial Guinea1–1D
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Guinea-Bissau – last 3

WWD
29 Sepvs Nigeria3–0W
25 Sep@ Tanzania2–0W
31 Mar@ Burkina Faso1–1D
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau.

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Comoros6330+312
2Tunisia6312+110
3Gambia622208
4Madagascar6024-42

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
Ghana Somalia 176%1.05X18%10.2026%26.00 2.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.65
Congo DR Sierra Leone 171%1.20X17%5.75212%14.20 2.1–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.24
Equatorial Guinea Zimbabwe 139%2.41X24%3.04237%2.98 1.3–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.42
Guinea Eritrea 174%1.12X18%7.2028%17.50 2.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.52
Benin Central African Republic 161%1.56X20%3.65219%6.09 1.6–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.38
Cameroon Namibia 170%1.26X19%4.85211%12.50 1.7–0.5xG 1Cameroon to win 70%@1.26
Ivory Coast Gambia 174%1.17X16%6.30210%14.40 2.4–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.39
Senegal Sudan 176%1.07X17%8.9027%24.00 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.63

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.

Who will win Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

On our numbers Madagascar have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Guinea-Bissau 51%.

How many goals will there be in Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Our predicted score is Madagascar 1–1 Guinea-Bissau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at George V Stadium.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.