Wed 11 Nov
Result · Thursday 12 November 2026

Home Win Predictions tomorrow

Thursday 12 November: 26 home wins picks with an average chance of 67%. Top of the list: Senegal vs Sudan – Senegal to win at 76%.

Hosts our ratings expect to take all three points. Strongest first – tap any match for the full analysis.

Top 10 home wins picks

Senegal Sudan 176%1.07X17%8.9027%24.00 2.3–0.5xG 1Senegal to win 76%@1.07
Ghana Somalia 176%1.05X18%10.2026%26.00 2.3–0.6xG 1Ghana to win 76%@1.05
Ivory Coast Gambia 174%1.18X16%6.20210%14.60 2.4–0.7xG 1Ivory Coast to win 74%@1.18
Guinea Eritrea 174%1.12X18%7.2028%17.50 2.3–0.6xG 1Guinea to win 74%@1.12
Barcelona W Arsenal W 174%1.27X17%5.7529%9.50 3.1–1.2xG 1Barcelona W to win 74%@1.27
New Zealand India 173%1.28X20%4.7527%8.50 2.4–0.7xG 1New Zealand to win 73%@1.28
Congo DR Sierra Leone 171%1.20X17%5.75212%14.20 2.1–0.7xG 1Congo DR to win 71%@1.20
England Croatia 170%1.22X20%7.0029%11.00 2.8–1.1xG 1England to win 70%@1.22
Cameroon Namibia 170%1.24X19%5.05211%13.30 1.8–0.5xG 1Cameroon to win 70%@1.24
América W Toluca W 170%1.12X16%9.00214%13.00 2.9–1.3xG 1América W to win 70%@1.12

More home wins picks

AfricaAfrica Cup Of Nations Qualification1 matchTable ›

Benin Central African Republic 161%1.56X20%3.65219%6.09 1.6–0.7xG 1Benin to win 61%@1.56

EuropeUEFA Nations League2 matchesTable ›

Montenegro Latvia 168%1.30X21%5.50212%9.50 1.9–0.7xG 1Montenegro to win 68%@1.30
Albania Finland 157%1.90X23%3.40221%4.33 1.7–0.9xG 1Albania to win 57%@1.90

MexicoLiga De Expansión MX1 matchTable ›

Piratas CA La Paz 160%1.81X23%3.70217%3.80 2.0–1.0xG 1Piratas to win 60%@1.81

USAUSL Super League1 matchTable ›

DC Power W Brooklyn W 159%1.67X20%3.50221%4.33 1.8–1.0xG 1DC Power W to win 59%@1.67

ColombiaPrimera B1 matchTable ›

Quindio Tigres FC 156%1.86X27%2.90217%4.25 1.4–0.6xG 1Quindio to win 56%@1.86

WorldCAF U23 Cup Of Nations1 matchTable ›

Tunisia U23 Gabon U23 162%1.43X21%4.05217%6.15 1.6–0.6xG 1Tunisia U23 to win 62%@1.43

WorldFriendlies1 matchTable ›

Malta Eswatini 166%1.50X21%4.20213%4.75 1.8–0.6xG 1Malta to win 66%@1.50

ColombiaPrimera A3 matchesTable ›

Millonarios Alianza Valledupar 170%1.28X19%5.25211%11.00 2.1–0.7xG 1Millonarios to win 70%@1.28
Llaneros Chico 169%1.57X21%3.80210%6.00 1.9–0.6xG 1Llaneros to win 69%@1.57
Cucuta Jaguares 166%1.64X22%3.76211%4.75 2.0–0.8xG 1Cucuta to win 66%@1.64

El-SalvadorPrimera Division3 matchesTable ›

Atletico Balboa Inca Aruba 165%1.61X22%3.72213%4.30 2.0–0.8xG 1Atletico Balboa to win 65%@1.61
Águila Municipal Limeño 160%1.58X20%3.60221%4.75 1.9–1.0xG 1Águila to win 60%@1.58
FAS Inter 156%1.83X25%3.32219%3.82 1.7–0.9xG 1FAS to win 56%@1.83

GuatemalaLiga Nacional1 matchTable ›

Aurora Mixco 160%1.92X20%3.30220%3.35 1.9–1.0xG 1Aurora to win 60%@1.92

Finished

ArgentinaTorneo Federal A1 matchTable ›

Postponed Kimberley Mar del Plata Olimpo Bahia Blanca 167%1.44X25%3.3028%7.50 1.5–0.3xG 1Kimberley Mar del Plata to win 67%@1.44

Tomorrow's home wins picks: today's figures

26 matches on Thursday 12 November qualify for this market today, averaging 67%. The strongest still to play is Senegal vs Sudan (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification): Senegal to win at 76%, priced at 1.07. Most picks come from Africa Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification (7), El-Salvador Primera Division (3), Europe UEFA Nations League (3). 8 of them are priced above our fair odds, so they also offer value.

Home wins explained

This page lists the home teams our numbers expect to win – the "1" in 1X2 – where the chance is at least 50%.

The home side must be ahead after 90 minutes. A draw or an away win loses the bet. Home advantage is real, but smaller than many think: in most leagues hosts win under half their games.

Where home wins makes sense

The strongest home picks combine a big rating gap, a team that scores freely at home and a visitor with a poor away record. Long trips and short turnarounds for the away side help too.

Checklist

  • Look at home form only – overall form can hide a weak home record.
  • Prices under 1.30 often hide more risk than they pay for.
  • Pair a strong home pick with over 1.5 goals rather than another favourite.

Where these chances come from

Each percentage is read from the ZoraTips score grid, built from our nightly team ratings and expected goals, with the bookmakers' lines folded in for late team news. If a bookmaker pays more than our fair price (100 ÷ the percentage), the pick carries value too. The full method is on how it works.

Rather take a whole slip? Our daily slips are ready to copy. For longer odds see the value spots, or jump to another market.

Frequently asked questions

How often do home teams win in football?

Across most leagues, between 42% and 47% of matches end in a home win.

Why do some strong home teams still draw?

Opponents often defend deep away from home, which turns games into low-scoring draws.

How do you pick home wins tips?

Every match is rated by our model and blended with the bookmakers' prices. For this page we show the home wins outcome for each match, ordered by our chance – the strongest first.

What does the percentage mean?

It is our chance of the pick winning. Compare it with the bookmaker price: a pick at 70% has fair odds of 1.43, so any price above that offers value.

Are these tips graded?

Yes. Every pick is marked ✓ or ✗ on the 90-minute score once the match ends, and yesterday's results stay on the Yesterday tab.