England v Croatia: numbers & prediction

England vs Croatia prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

UEFA Nations League action on Thursday 12 November: England take on Croatia at Wembley Stadium from 20:45 WAT. England sit 2nd with 9 points from 4 games, while Croatia are 3rd on 3.

Form guide

England – form over the last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Czechia 3–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are averaging 3.5 goals a game – a real threat going forward. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

Croatia – form over the last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Spain 1–2 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.2 and concede 2.8 per game.

On form, England have the edge: 2.0 points a game against 1.0.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 3 Oct 2026, finished Croatia 0–7 England. Across the last 2 meetings England have won 2s, Croatia 0, with 0 draws, averaging 6.5 goals, with both sides scoring 1 time.

Goals outlook

Our model projects England 2.8 – 1.1 Croatia in expected goals – roughly 3.8 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 69% for over 2.5 goals, 51% for GG. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

• Match result chances: England 70% · draw 20% · Croatia 9%.
• Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.

ZoraTips prediction

We back Over 2.5 goals, rated at 69% confidence at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: England 2–1 Croatia. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.