Wed 11 Nov

Romania v Poland: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Romania

LLLLW
Sat 14 Nov 2026

Poland

LWLDD
Romania 19%Draw 21%Poland 59% Expected goals 1.05 – 2.00
81%
ZoraTips pick

Poland or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25

9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2

Value bet: Poland to win @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultPoland to win59% · @1.90
Double chancePoland or draw81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.06

Romania vs Poland prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

It is Romania v Poland in the UEFA Nations League – Saturday 14 November, 20:45 WAT. Romania sit 4th with 0 points from 4 games, while Poland are 3rd on 4.

Form guide

Romania – form over the last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Sweden 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 2.5 per game.

Poland – form over the last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Bosnia & Herzegovina 0–1 on the road. They score 1.5 and concede 1.3 per game.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 2 Oct 2026, finished Poland 6–0 Romania.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Romania 1.1 – 2.0 Poland in expected goals – roughly 3.1 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 56% for over 2.5 goals, 58% for GG.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Romania 19% · draw 21% · Poland 59%.
  • Safer play: Poland or draw (81%) at 1.25.
  • Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
  • Value angle: Poland to win at 1.90 – we make it 59%, the price implies 53%.

ZoraTips prediction

Our tip: Poland or draw, rated at 81% confidence at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Romania 1–2 Poland. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Romania19%fair 5.21 · @3.90
Draw21%fair 4.65 · @3.50
Poland59%fair 1.69 · @1.90
3.05Expected goals
1.05Romania xG
2.00Poland xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–210%
1–110%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%

From our goals model: Romania 1.1 – 2.0 Poland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPoland to win59%1.691.90 ▲
Double chancePoland or draw81%1.241.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score58%1.711.67
Draw no betPoland (draw no bet)76%1.32–
Asian handicapRomania +1.5 (Asian handicap)64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals79%1.271.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals56%1.791.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals65%1.541.40
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals82%1.221.14
First team to scorePoland to score first62%1.60–
Half-time resultPoland ahead at half-time44%2.29–
Half-time / full-timeHT Poland / FT Poland38%2.65–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%10.06–

Recent results

Romania – last 6

LLLLWD
5 Octvs Sweden0–1L
2 Oct@ Poland0–6L
28 Sepvs Bosnia & Herzegovina2–4L
25 Sep@ Sweden1–2L
6 Junvs Wales2–1W
2 Jun@ Georgia1–1D
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Poland – last 6

LWLDDL
5 Oct@ Bosnia & Herzegovina0–1L
2 Octvs Romania6–0W
28 Sep@ Sweden1–3L
25 Sepvs Bosnia & Herzegovina0–0D
3 Junvs Nigeria2–2D
31 Mayvs Ukraine0–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

2 Oct 2026Poland v Romania6–0
Romania vs Poland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Sweden4310+410
2Bosnia & Herzegovina4220+38
3Poland4112+34
4Romania4004-100

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Kosovo Israel 163%1.85X22%3.40214%4.20 1.7–0.7xG 1XKosovo or draw 86%@1.22
Norway Wales 173%1.22X16%7.00212%10.00 2.3–0.7xG 1Norway to win 73%@1.22
Georgia Hungary 130%3.30X24%3.00246%2.30 0.7–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 69%@1.53
Portugal Denmark 163%1.48X22%4.75216%5.50 2.2–1.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 64%@1.48
Northern Ireland Ukraine 147%2.30X24%2.90229%3.00 1.1–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 66%@1.53
Austria Rep. Of Ireland 163%1.57X23%4.00214%5.50 2.0–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25
Sweden Bosnia & Herzegovina 164%1.50X21%4.20214%6.00 2.0–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 66%@1.50

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Romania vs Poland?

Our pick is Poland or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Romania vs Poland?

On our numbers Romania have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Poland 59%.

How many goals will there be in Romania vs Poland?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Romania vs Poland?

Our predicted score is Romania 1–2 Poland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Romania vs Poland?

Romania vs Poland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.