Sturm Graz v Celje Prediction & Expected Goals (5 Nov) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSturm Graz to win ✗65% · @1.50

Double chanceSturm Graz or draw ✗88% · @1.14

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.17

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.50

Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

UEFA Europa League action on Thursday 5 November: Sturm Graz take on Celje at Stadion Graz-Liebenau from 21:00 WAT. Sturm Graz sit 24th with 4 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Celje are 25th on 4 (in the bottom half). The gap is down to goal difference, so three points here could swap their places.

Form guide

Sturm Graz – form over the last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Wolfsberger AC 1–1 on the road. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are averaging 2.0 goals a game – a real threat going forward.

Celje – form over the last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Nafta 4–0 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.5 and concede 1.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Sturm Graz 2.0 – 0.7 Celje in expected goals – roughly 2.7 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 55% for over 2.5, 56% for both teams to score.

Betting angles

Match result chances: Sturm Graz 65% · draw 22% · Celje 12%.
Safer play: Sturm Graz or draw (88%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.

Our tip before kick-off

Before kick-off we picked Under 3.5 goals, rated at 66% confidence at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.52, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Sturm Graz 1–0 Celje. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Sturm Graz65%fair 1.53 · @1.50

Draw22%fair 4.45 · @4.33

Celje12%fair 8.15 · @6.00

2.69Expected goals

1.95Sturm Graz xG

0.73Celje xG

56%Both score

55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%

2–013%

1–110%

2–110%

3–08%

0–07%

From our goals model: Sturm Graz 2.0 – 0.7 Celje expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sturm Graz to win ✗	65%	1.53	1.50
Double chance	Sturm Graz or draw ✗	88%	1.14	1.14
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	56%	1.77	1.67
Draw no bet	Sturm Graz (draw no bet) ✗	84%	1.19	–
Asian handicap	Sturm Graz -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	66%	1.51	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	78%	1.28	1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	55%	1.81	1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	66%	1.52	1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	82%	1.22	1.22
First team to score	Sturm Graz to score first	68%	1.48	–
Half-time result	Sturm Graz ahead at half-time ✗	47%	2.13	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sturm Graz / FT Sturm Graz ✗	42%	2.36	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.50	–

Sturm Graz – last 6

DLDWWL

1 Nov	@ Wolfsberger AC	1–1	D
29 Oct	@ Austria Lustenau	2–3	L
25 Oct	vs Ried	2–2	D
22 Oct	vs Marseille	1–0	W
18 Oct	vs Grazer AK	6–1	W
15 Oct	@ Bournemouth	0–3	L

2.0Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Celje – last 6

WDWDDL

1 Nov	vs Nafta	4–0	W
28 Oct	@ Olimpija Ljubljana	1–1	D
25 Oct	@ Korotan Prevalje	2–0	W
22 Oct	vs Red Bull Salzburg	2–2	D
18 Oct	@ Maribor	0–0	D
15 Oct	vs Omonia Nicosia	0–3	L

1.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5
22	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4
23	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Team

Pts

+10

-1

-1

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4

-5

-7

-8

-10

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Celje?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.

Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?

On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Celje 12%.

How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Celje?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Celje?

Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–0 Celje, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Sturm Graz vs Celje?

Sturm Graz vs Celje (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Sturm Graz v Celje: numbers & prediction