Mon 16 Nov

Burundi v Zambia: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa

Burundi

DDLWW
Tue 17 Nov 2026

Zambia

DWLL
Burundi 43%Draw 24%Zambia 33% Expected goals 1.39 – 1.17
65%
ZoraTips pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.62

6/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 55% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultBurundi to win43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.38
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.45

Burundi vs Zambia prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification action on Tuesday 17 November: Burundi take on Zambia from 14:00 WAT. Burundi sit 4th with 4 points from 6 games, while Zambia are 1st on 13.

Form guide

Burundi – form over the last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Zambia 1–1 on the road. They are averaging 2.2 goals a game – a real threat going forward. 2 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

Zambia – form over the last 4: DWLL Most recently they drew with Burundi 1–1 at home. They score 1.0 and concede 2.3 per game.

On form, Burundi have the edge: 1.6 points a game against 1.0.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 13 Nov 2026, finished Zambia 1–1 Burundi.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Burundi 1.4 – 1.2 Zambia in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 40% for over 2.5, 55% for both teams to score.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Burundi 43% · draw 24% · Zambia 33%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.38.
  • Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.38 – we make it 55%, the price implies 42%.

ZoraTips prediction

We back Over 1.5 goals, rated at 65% confidence at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.54, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Burundi 1–1 Zambia. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Burundi43%fair 2.31 · @2.55
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.00
Zambia33%fair 3.03 · @2.80
2.56Expected goals
1.39Burundi xG
1.17Zambia xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–07%

From our goals model: Burundi 1.4 – 1.2 Zambia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBurundi to win43%2.312.55 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win76%1.311.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score55%1.822.38 ▲
Draw no betBurundi (draw no bet)57%1.76–
Asian handicapZambia +1 (Asian handicap)75%1.34–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals65%1.541.62 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals60%1.681.40
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals79%1.271.12
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals89%1.121.03
First team to scoreBurundi to score first50%2.00–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time43%2.30–
Half-time / full-timeHT Burundi / FT Burundi24%4.08–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%11.45–

Recent results

Burundi – last 5

DDLWW
13 Nov@ Zambia1–1D
29 Sepvs Algeria2–2D
25 Sep@ Togo0–1L
31 Marvs Chad4–0W
27 Mar@ Chad4–0W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5

Zambia – last 4

DWLL
13 Novvs Burundi1–1D
29 Sepvs Togo2–0W
25 Sep@ Algeria1–3L
1 Apr@ Argentina0–5L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

13 Nov 2026Zambia v Burundi1–1
Burundi vs Zambia head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Zambia6411+313
2Ivory Coast6402+912
3Sierra Leone6123-55
4Chad6033-73

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
Ethiopia Mozambique 138%2.75X24%2.90238%2.55 1.1–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 63%@1.50
Lesotho Gabon 111%7.30X22%3.92267%1.44 0.5–1.7xG 2Gabon to win 67%@1.44
Malawi Egypt 110%15.00X16%6.25274%1.17 0.7–2.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.22
South Sudan Angola 116%11.25X18%4.65266%1.28 0.7–1.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.32
Tanzania Nigeria 116%8.70X20%4.33264%1.35 0.7–1.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.20
Gambia Ivory Coast 19%6.25X25%3.85267%1.50 0.7–2.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.30
Kenya South Africa 124%4.70X25%3.24251%1.77 1.1–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.46
Libya Tunisia 118%4.60X22%3.24260%1.79 0.8–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.44

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burundi vs Zambia?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Burundi vs Zambia?

On our numbers Burundi have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Zambia 33%.

How many goals will there be in Burundi vs Zambia?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Burundi vs Zambia?

Our predicted score is Burundi 1–1 Zambia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Burundi vs Zambia?

Burundi vs Zambia (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.