Luxembourg v Estonia: numbers & prediction

Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

UEFA Nations League action on Friday 13 November: Luxembourg take on Estonia at Stade de Luxembourg from 20:45 WAT. Luxembourg sit 4th with 3 points from 4 games, while Estonia are 2nd on 6. The gap is just 3 points, so three points here could swap their places.

Form guide

Luxembourg – form over the last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Bulgaria 0–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.5 per game.

Estonia – form over the last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Iceland 0–0 at home. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

On form, Estonia have the edge: 1.5 points a game against 1.0.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 3 Oct 2026, finished Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Luxembourg 0.9 – 1.0 Estonia in expected goals – roughly 1.9 goals in all. This looks a tight one: under 2.5 goals is 67% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Betting angles

• Match result chances: Luxembourg 38% · draw 23% · Estonia 39%.
• Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
• Value angle: Estonia to win at 3.50 – we make it 39%, the price implies 29%.

ZoraTips prediction

ZoraTips tip: Under 2.5 goals, rated at 67% confidence at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Luxembourg 0–0 Estonia. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.