Bulgaria v Iceland Prediction & Expected Goals (13 Nov) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultIceland to win63% · @1.80

Double chanceIceland or draw87% · @1.20

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.73

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–117% · fair 5.73

Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Bulgaria host Iceland in the UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November, kicking off at 20:45 WAT at Hristo Botev Stadium. Bulgaria sit 3rd with 4 points from 4 games, while Iceland are 1st on 8.

Form guide

Bulgaria – form over the last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Luxembourg 2–0 on the road. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.8 per game.

Iceland – form over the last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Estonia 0–0 on the road. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They score 1.2 and concede 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 3 Oct 2026, finished Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Bulgaria 0.6 – 1.7 Iceland in expected goals – roughly 2.3 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 42% for over 2.5, 49% for both teams to score.

Betting angles

Match result chances: Bulgaria 13% · draw 24% · Iceland 63%.
Safer play: Iceland or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Iceland to win at 1.80 – we make it 63%, the price implies 56%.

ZoraTips prediction

We back Iceland or draw, rated at 87% confidence at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Bulgaria13%fair 7.76 · @4.33

Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.60

Iceland63%fair 1.58 · @1.80

2.25Expected goals

0.59Bulgaria xG

1.66Iceland xG

49%Both score

42%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–117%

0–215%

0–010%

1–110%

1–29%

0–38%

From our goals model: Bulgaria 0.6 – 1.7 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Iceland to win	63%	1.58	1.80 ▲
Double chance	Iceland or draw	87%	1.15	1.20
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score	51%	1.96	1.73
Draw no bet	Iceland (draw no bet)	83%	1.20	–
Asian handicap	Iceland -0.5 (Asian handicap)	63%	1.58	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	68%	1.46	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	58%	1.72	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	78%	1.28	1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	89%	1.12	1.08
First team to score	Iceland to score first	66%	1.52	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	45%	2.25	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Iceland / FT Iceland	39%	2.54	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1	17%	5.73	–

Bulgaria – last 6

WLDLDL

6 Oct	@ Luxembourg	2–0	W
3 Oct	@ Iceland	0–3	L
29 Sep	vs Estonia	0–0	D
26 Sep	vs Luxembourg	1–2	L
5 Jun	@ Moldova	2–2	D
1 Jun	vs Montenegro	0–1	L

0.8Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Iceland – last 6

DWWDLL

6 Oct	@ Estonia	0–0	D
3 Oct	vs Bulgaria	3–0	W
29 Sep	@ Luxembourg	3–0	W
26 Sep	vs Estonia	1–1	D
10 Jun	@ Argentina	0–3	L
31 May	@ Japan	0–1	L

1.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

17%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iceland	4	2	2	0	+6	8
2	Estonia	4	1	3	0	+1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	1	1	2	-2	4
4	Luxembourg	4	1	0	3	-5	3

Team

Pts

-2

-5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Our pick is Iceland or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?

On our numbers Bulgaria have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Iceland 63%.

How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Iceland?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Our predicted score is Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Bulgaria vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Hristo Botev Stadium.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Bulgaria v Iceland: numbers & prediction