Sat 14 Nov

Japan v Brazil: numbers & prediction

Friendlies · World · National Stadium

Japan

WDWWL
3–2
FT

Brazil

WWDLW
Japan 19%Draw 21%Brazil 60% Expected goals 1.09 – 2.09
81%
ZoraTips pick

Brazil or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗

9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2

Value bet: Brazil to win @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBrazil to win ✗60% · @1.83
Double chanceBrazil or draw ✗81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.10

Japan vs Brazil prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Friendlies action on Saturday 14 November: Japan take on Brazil at National Stadium from 11:15 WAT.

Form guide

Japan – form over the last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat New Zealand 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5. They score 1.5 and concede 1.0 per game.

Brazil – form over the last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat India 4–0 on the road. On their travels they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. 2.5 goals per match shows an attack in good shape.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 29 Jun 2026, finished Brazil 2–1 Japan.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Japan 1.1 – 2.1 Brazil in expected goals – roughly 3.2 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Japan 19% · draw 21% · Brazil 60%.
  • Safer play: Brazil or draw (81%) at 1.25.
  • Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.57.
  • Value angle: Brazil to win at 1.83 – we make it 60%, the price implies 55%.

Our tip before kick-off

Before kick-off we picked Brazil or draw, rated at 81% confidence at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Japan 1–2 Brazil. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Japan19%fair 5.21 · @3.60
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.75
Brazil60%fair 1.66 · @1.83
3.18Expected goals
1.09Japan xG
2.09Brazil xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–210%
1–19%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%

From our goals model: Japan 1.1 – 2.1 Brazil expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBrazil to win ✗60%1.661.83 ▲
Double chanceBrazil or draw ✗81%1.241.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓64%1.571.57
Draw no betBrazil (draw no bet) ✗76%1.32–
Asian handicapBrazil -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗60%1.66–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81%1.241.18
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓60%1.661.60
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗62%1.621.50
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗78%1.281.20
First team to scoreBrazil to score first63%1.59–
Half-time resultBrazil ahead at half-time ✗45%2.24–
Half-time / full-timeHT Brazil / FT Brazil ✗39%2.60–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10%10.10–

Recent results

Japan – last 6

WDWWLD
5 Octvs New Zealand2–1W
1 Octvs Ecuador0–0D
28 Sepvs Venezuela2–1W
24 Sepvs Uruguay3–1W
29 Jun@ Brazil1–2L
26 Junvs Sweden1–1D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Brazil – last 6

WWDLWW
3 Oct@ India4–0W
29 Sep@ Australia4–2W
25 Sep@ Australia1–1D
5 Julvs Norway1–2L
29 Junvs Japan2–1W
24 Jun@ Scotland3–0W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

29 Jun 2026Brazil v Japan2–1
Japan vs Brazil head-to-head page →

More Friendlies predictions

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FT Brazil U202 Peru U200 176%1.08X15%8.0029%13.25 2.6–0.8xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 68%@1.27 ✗
FT Colombia1 Chile0 170%1.40X20%4.33210%7.50 2.1–0.6xG 1Colombia to win 70%@1.40 ✓
FT Ecuador2 Costa Rica0 172%1.20X21%5.7527%10.00 2.3–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Peru2 Bolivia0 160%1.57X24%3.90215%5.25 1.9–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓
FT Bahrain3 Yemen1 168%1.63X21%3.96211%6.49 1.9–0.6xG 1Bahrain to win 68%@1.63 ✓
FT Thailand U233 Singapore U231 167%1.37X19%4.15214%7.24 2.4–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 80%@1.21 ✓
FT China2 Malaysia0 166%1.61X18%4.47216%5.62 2.0–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.23 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Japan vs Brazil?

Our pick is Brazil or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Japan vs Brazil?

On our numbers Japan have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Brazil 60%.

How many goals will there be in Japan vs Brazil?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Japan vs Brazil?

Our predicted score is Japan 1–2 Brazil, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is Japan vs Brazil?

Japan vs Brazil (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 11:15 (West Africa Time) at National Stadium.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.