Atalanta v Kairat Almaty Prediction & Expected Goals (5 Nov) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtalanta to win ✗75% · @1.14

Double chanceAtalanta or draw ✓95% · @1.03

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.10

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.55

Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Atalanta host Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November, kicking off at 18:45 WAT at New Balance Arena. Atalanta sit 16th with 4 points from 3 games (in the top half), while Kairat Almaty are 27th on 2 (in the bottom half). The gap is just 2 points, so three points here could swap their places.

Form guide

Atalanta – form over the last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Parma 0–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 2.5 per game.

Kairat Almaty – form over the last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Altay 1–1 at home. They score 1.8 and concede 1.5 per game.

On form, Kairat Almaty have the edge: 1.5 points a game against 0.8.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Atalanta 2.5 – 0.6 Kairat Almaty in expected goals – roughly 3.1 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 65% for over 2.5 goals, 54% for GG. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

Match result chances: Atalanta 75% · draw 19% · Kairat Almaty 5%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – we make it 54%, the price implies 50%.

Our tip before kick-off

Before kick-off we picked Over 2.5 goals, rated at 65% confidence at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Atalanta 3–0 Kairat Almaty. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Atalanta75%fair 1.33 · @1.14

Draw19%fair 5.16 · @7.50

Kairat Almaty5%fair 19.23 · @17.00

3.09Expected goals

2.46Atalanta xG

0.63Kairat Almaty xG

54%Both score

65%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–014%

3–011%

1–011%

2–19%

3–17%

1–17%

From our goals model: Atalanta 2.5 – 0.6 Kairat Almaty expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atalanta to win ✗	75%	1.33	1.14
Double chance	Atalanta or draw ✓	95%	1.05	1.03
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	54%	1.84	2.00 ▲
Draw no bet	Atalanta (draw no bet)	94%	1.07	–
Asian handicap	Atalanta -1 (Asian handicap) ✗	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	84%	1.19	1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	65%	1.55	1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	56%	1.78	1.83
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	74%	1.34	1.36
First team to score	Atalanta to score first	76%	1.31	–
Half-time result	Atalanta ahead at half-time ✗	57%	1.77	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta ✗	53%	1.87	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.55	–

Atalanta – last 6

LDDLLW

2 Nov	vs Parma	0–3	L
29 Oct	@ Fiorentina	2–2	D
25 Oct	vs Frosinone	4–4	D
22 Oct	@ Ajax	0–2	L
18 Oct	@ AC Milan	2–3	L
15 Oct	vs Pafos	3–1	W

1.8Scored / game

2.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Kairat Almaty – last 6

DDLWDW

31 Oct	vs Altay	1–1	D
25 Oct	@ Aktobe	2–2	D
22 Oct	vs Panathinaikos	1–5	L
18 Oct	vs Irtysh	5–0	W
15 Oct	@ Riga	1–1	D
10 Oct	vs Zhetysu	1–0	W

1.8Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Twente	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Brann	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	FC Copenhagen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Universitatea Craiova	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Mjallby AIF	3	2	1	0	+4	7
10	St. Truiden	3	2	1	0	+3	7
11	Ajax	3	2	0	1	+6	6
12	Trabzonspor	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	HNK Hajduk Split	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	SC Freiburg	3	2	0	1	-1	6
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	3	1	1	1	0	4
16	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	0	4
17	SC Braga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
18	Gent	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Riga	3	0	3	0	0	3
20	FC Thun	3	1	0	2	0	3
21	Borac Banja Luka	3	1	0	2	-1	3
22	Lincoln Red Imps FC	3	1	0	2	-3	3
23	FK Jablonec	3	0	2	1	-1	2
24	Aarhus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
25	FC Nordsjaelland	3	0	2	1	-2	2
26	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	3	0	2	1	-2	2
27	Kairat Almaty	3	0	2	1	-4	2
28	CSKA Sofia	3	0	1	2	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	3	0	1	2	-3	1
30	Pafos	3	0	1	2	-4	1
31	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-4	1
32	Heart Of Midlothian	3	0	1	2	-4	1
33	KuPS	3	0	1	2	-4	1
34	FC Midtjylland	3	0	1	2	-6	1
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	3	0	0	3	-5	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Team

Pts

Universitatea Craiova

-1

-1

-1

-1

-3

-1

-1

-2

-2

-4

-2

-3

-4

-4

-4

-4

-6

Inter Club d'Escaldes

-5

Kauno Žalgiris

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

On our numbers Atalanta have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Kairat Almaty 5%.

How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

Our predicted score is Atalanta 3–0 Kairat Almaty, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Atalanta v Kairat Almaty: numbers & prediction