Value bet: Fafe to win @ 2.65 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFafe to win ✗44% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.40
Varzim vs Fafe prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Varzim host Fafe in the Liga 3 on Sunday 8 November, kicking off at 16:00 WAT. Varzim sit 6th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Fafe are 4th on 13 (in the top four). The gap is just 1 point, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Varzim – form over the last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Leça 0–2 on the road. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.8 per game.
Fafe – form over the last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Pacos Ferreira 3–1 at home. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.7 and concede 1.0 per game.
On form, Fafe have the edge: 1.3 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Varzim 1.2 – 1.4 Fafe in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 46% for over 2.5, 53% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Varzim 33% · draw 23% · Fafe 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.81.
Value angle: Fafe to win at 2.65 – we make it 44%, the price implies 38%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 71% confidence at odds of 1.32. Predicted score: Varzim 1–1 Fafe. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Varzim33%fair 3.00 · @2.42
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.02
Fafe44%fair 2.27 · @2.65
2.57Expected goals
1.17Varzim xG
1.40Fafe xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–27%
From our goals model: Varzim 1.2 – 1.4 Fafe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fafe to win✗
44%
2.27
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.27
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.81
Draw no bet
Fafe (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Varzim +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.63
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.19
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Fafe to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fafe / FT Fafe✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.40
–
Recent results
Varzim – last 6
LLLLLL
31 Oct
@ Leça
0–2
L
25 Oct
vs Guimaraes B
2–4
L
11 Oct
@ São João Ver
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Vitória de Sernache
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Vianense
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Paredes
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Fafe – last 6
WDLDWL
30 Oct
vs Pacos Ferreira
3–1
W
25 Oct
@ AD Marco 09
0–0
D
18 Oct
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Trofense
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Lajense
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Paredes
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varzim and Fafe.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Varzim vs Fafe?
On our numbers Varzim have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fafe 44%.
How many goals will there be in Varzim vs Fafe?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Varzim vs Fafe?
Our predicted score is Varzim 1–1 Fafe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Varzim vs Fafe?
Varzim vs Fafe (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
