Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Marseille to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLens to win ✗41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.79
Lens vs Marseille prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Ligue 1 action on Sunday 8 November: Lens take on Marseille at Stade Bollaert-Delelis from 20:45 WAT. Lens sit 11th with 13 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Marseille are 4th on 18 (in the top four).
Form guide
Lens – form over the last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Como 1–9 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 2.8 per game.
Marseille – form over the last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 on the road. On their travels they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are averaging 2.0 goals a game – a real threat going forward.
On form, Marseille have the edge: 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Lens 1.6 – 1.6 Marseille in expected goals – roughly 3.2 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 61% likely and both teams score 64% of the time.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Lens 41% · draw 21% · Marseille 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Marseille to win at 3.00 – we make it 38%, the price implies 33%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 81% confidence at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lens 1–1 Marseille. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Lens41%fair 2.45 · @2.25
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.60
Marseille38%fair 2.60 · @3.00
3.22Expected goals
1.64Lens xG
1.58Marseille xG
64%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
1–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lens 1.6 – 1.6 Marseille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lens to win✗
41%
2.45
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.55
1.53
Draw no bet
Lens (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Marseille +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
First team to score
Lens to score first
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.63
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lens / FT Lens✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.79
–
Recent results
Lens – last 6
LLWLWL
4 Nov
vs Como
1–9
L
30 Oct
@ Lille
0–1
L
24 Oct
vs Paris FC
2–1
W
21 Oct
@ Club Brugge KV
0–3
L
17 Oct
@ Estac Troyes
3–1
W
13 Oct
vs Sporting CP
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Marseille – last 6
WWWLWL
5 Nov
@ Bayer Leverkusen
1–0
W
1 Nov
vs Toulouse
2–0
W
25 Oct
vs Le Havre
4–3
W
22 Oct
@ Sturm Graz
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Angers
5–2
W
15 Oct
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lens and Marseille.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lens vs Marseille?
On our numbers Lens have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Marseille 38%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Marseille?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Marseille?
Our predicted score is Lens 1–1 Marseille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Lens vs Marseille?
Lens vs Marseille (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
