Thu 12 Nov

Zambia v Burundi: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Zambia

WLL
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Burundi

DLWW
Zambia 61%Draw 26%Burundi 14% Expected goals 1.88 – 0.82
70%
ZoraTips pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.40

7/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.24 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultZambia to win61% · @1.63
Double chanceZambia or draw86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.24
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.28

Zambia vs Burundi prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

It is Zambia v Burundi in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification – Friday 13 November, 14:00 WAT, Levy Mwanawasa Stadium. Zambia sit 1st with 13 points from 6 games, while Burundi are 4th on 4.

Form guide

Zambia – form over the last 3: WLL Most recently they beat Togo 2–0 at home. They score 1.0 and concede 2.7 per game.

Burundi – form over the last 4: DLWW Most recently they drew with Algeria 2–2 at home. 2.5 goals per match shows an attack in good shape. 2 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

On form, Burundi have the edge: 1.8 points a game against 1.0.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Zambia 1.9 – 0.8 Burundi in expected goals – roughly 2.7 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 45% for over 2.5, 51% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Zambia 61% · draw 26% · Burundi 14%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.24.
  • Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.24 – we make it 51%, the price implies 45%.

ZoraTips prediction

We back Over 1.5 goals, rated at 70% confidence at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Zambia 2–0 Burundi. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Zambia61%fair 1.65 · @1.63
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.52
Burundi14%fair 7.19 · @5.52
2.69Expected goals
1.88Zambia xG
0.82Burundi xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%

From our goals model: Zambia 1.9 – 0.8 Burundi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultZambia to win61%1.651.63
Double chanceZambia or draw86%1.161.10
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score51%1.982.24 ▲
Draw no betZambia (draw no bet)81%1.23–
Asian handicapZambia -0.5 (Asian handicap)62%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals70%1.431.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals55%1.831.56
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals75%1.331.15
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals88%1.141.02
First team to scoreZambia to score first65%1.54–
Half-time resultZambia ahead at half-time44%2.25–
Half-time / full-timeHT Zambia / FT Zambia39%2.53–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%10.28–

Recent results

Zambia – last 3

WLL
29 Sepvs Togo2–0W
25 Sep@ Algeria1–3L
1 Apr@ Argentina0–5L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Burundi – last 4

DLWW
29 Sepvs Algeria2–2D
25 Sep@ Togo0–1L
31 Marvs Chad4–0W
27 Mar@ Chad4–0W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Zambia and Burundi.

Zambia vs Burundi head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Zambia6411+313
2Ivory Coast6402+912
3Sierra Leone6123-55
4Chad6033-73

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

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Mozambique Ethiopia 162%1.57X24%3.70214%5.80 1.7–0.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.35
Burkina Faso Mauritania 162%1.54X24%3.70214%6.23 1.7–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.42
Cape Verde Islands Liberia 166%1.26X20%4.95214%12.00 2.0–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.28
Gabon Lesotho 169%1.22X19%5.45212%13.00 1.8–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28
Nigeria Tanzania 176%1.12X18%7.3027%18.00 2.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.48
South Africa Kenya 167%1.27X18%4.90215%11.30 1.9–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.22
Tunisia Libya 174%1.26X19%4.9527%12.00 2.1–0.5xG 1Tunisia to win 74%@1.26

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Zambia vs Burundi?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Zambia vs Burundi?

On our numbers Zambia have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Burundi 14%.

How many goals will there be in Zambia vs Burundi?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Zambia vs Burundi?

Our predicted score is Zambia 2–0 Burundi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Zambia vs Burundi?

Zambia vs Burundi (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.