Wed 11 Nov

Mozambique v Ethiopia: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa

Mozambique

WDL
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Ethiopia

LLDWW
Mozambique 62%Draw 24%Ethiopia 13% Expected goals 1.66 – 0.62
62%
ZoraTips pick

Mozambique to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.54

5/10Rating
1.54Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.26 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultMozambique to win62% · @1.54
Double chanceMozambique or draw87% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.26
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.46

Mozambique vs Ethiopia prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Mozambique host Ethiopia in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification on Friday 13 November, kicking off at 14:00 WAT. Mozambique sit 2nd with 11 points from 6 games, while Ethiopia are 4th on 4.

Form guide

Mozambique – form over the last 3: WDL Most recently they beat Sudan 4–1 at home. They score 1.7 and concede 1.0 per game.

Ethiopia – form over the last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Senegal 0–1 at home. They score 1.0 and concede 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Mozambique 1.7 – 0.6 Ethiopia in expected goals – roughly 2.3 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 41% for over 2.5, 51% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Mozambique 62% · draw 24% · Ethiopia 13%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.26.
  • Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.26 – we make it 51%, the price implies 44%.

ZoraTips prediction

We back Mozambique to win, rated at 62% confidence at odds of 1.54. Predicted score: Mozambique 1–0 Ethiopia. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Mozambique62%fair 1.60 · @1.54
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.74
Ethiopia13%fair 7.55 · @6.13
2.28Expected goals
1.66Mozambique xG
0.62Ethiopia xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%

From our goals model: Mozambique 1.7 – 0.6 Ethiopia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMozambique to win62%1.601.54
Double chanceMozambique or draw87%1.151.08
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score51%1.972.26 ▲
Draw no betMozambique (draw no bet)83%1.21–
Asian handicapMozambique -0.5 (Asian handicap)63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals66%1.511.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals59%1.691.61
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals79%1.271.17
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals90%1.111.03
First team to scoreMozambique to score first65%1.53–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time44%2.25–
Half-time / full-timeHT Mozambique / FT Mozambique39%2.57–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%11.46–

Recent results

Mozambique – last 3

WDL
29 Sepvs Sudan4–1W
25 Sepvs Senegal1–1D
9 Jun@ Indonesia0–1L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Ethiopia – last 6

LLDWWW
29 Sepvs Senegal0–1L
25 Sep@ Sudan0–1L
9 Junvs Malawi1–1D
6 Junvs Malawi1–0W
31 Marvs Sao Tome and Principe1–0W
27 Mar@ Sao Tome and Principe3–0W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Mozambique and Ethiopia.

Mozambique vs Ethiopia head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Congo DR6402+412
2Tanzania6312+110
3Guinea6303+49
4Ethiopia6114-94

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
Comoros Congo 157%1.83X27%3.20216%4.56 1.5–0.6xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.42
Zambia Burundi 161%1.58X25%3.62214%5.85 1.9–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 70%@1.39
Burkina Faso Mauritania 162%1.53X24%3.72214%6.37 1.7–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.43
Cape Verde Islands Liberia 166%1.25X20%5.10214%12.00 2.0–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.26
Gabon Lesotho 169%1.22X19%5.45212%13.00 1.8–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28
Nigeria Tanzania 176%1.11X18%7.5027%18.50 2.3–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.47
South Africa Kenya 167%1.27X18%4.90215%11.30 1.9–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.22
Tunisia Libya 174%1.26X19%5.0027%11.70 2.1–0.5xG 1Tunisia to win 74%@1.26

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Our pick is Mozambique to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.54.

Who will win Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

On our numbers Mozambique have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ethiopia 13%.

How many goals will there be in Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Our predicted score is Mozambique 1–0 Ethiopia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Mozambique vs Ethiopia?

Mozambique vs Ethiopia (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.