Sun 15 Nov

Iceland v Luxembourg: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Ice Rink Laugardalur

Iceland

WDWWD
Mon 16 Nov 2026

Luxembourg

LLLLW
Iceland 71%Draw 18%Luxembourg 12% Expected goals 2.00 – 0.64
75%
ZoraTips pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.22

8/10Rating
1.22Odds

Picks by market

ResultIceland to win71% · @1.27
Double chanceIceland or draw88% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–010% · fair 10.48

Iceland vs Luxembourg prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Iceland host Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 16 November, kicking off at 18:00 WAT at Ice Rink Laugardalur. Iceland sit 1st with 11 points from 5 games, while Luxembourg are 4th on 3.

Form guide

Iceland – form over the last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Bulgaria 5–0 on the road. 2.0 goals per match shows an attack in good shape. 4 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

Luxembourg – form over the last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Estonia 0–1 at home. On their travels they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.5 per game.

On form, Iceland have the edge: 1.8 points a game against 1.0.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 29 Sep 2026, finished Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Iceland 2.0 – 0.6 Luxembourg in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 52% for over 2.5, 48% for both teams to score.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Iceland 71% · draw 18% · Luxembourg 12%.
  • Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.57.

ZoraTips prediction

Our tip: Over 1.5 goals, rated at 75% confidence at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Iceland 2–0 Luxembourg. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Iceland71%fair 1.41 · @1.27
Draw18%fair 5.64 · @5.25
Luxembourg12%fair 8.65 · @11.00
2.64Expected goals
2.00Iceland xG
0.64Luxembourg xG
48%Both score
52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–014%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
0–07%

From our goals model: Iceland 2.0 – 0.6 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (ZoraTips)

IcelandLuxembourg
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+45%-23%
Goals conceded vs average-30%+11%
Our expected goals here2.080.67

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIceland to win71%1.411.27
Double chanceIceland or draw88%1.131.02
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score52%1.921.57
Draw no betIceland (draw no bet)86%1.16–
Asian handicapIceland -0.5 (Asian handicap)70%1.44–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals75%1.331.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals52%1.921.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals69%1.461.44
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals83%1.201.17
First team to scoreIceland to score first70%1.42–
Half-time resultIceland ahead at half-time49%2.04–
Half-time / full-timeHT Iceland / FT Iceland45%2.22–
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–010%10.48–

Recent results

Iceland – last 6

WDWWDL
13 Nov@ Bulgaria5–0W
6 Oct@ Estonia0–0D
3 Octvs Bulgaria3–0W
29 Sep@ Luxembourg3–0W
26 Sepvs Estonia1–1D
10 Jun@ Argentina0–3L
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Luxembourg – last 6

LLLLWW
13 Novvs Estonia0–1L
6 Octvs Bulgaria0–2L
3 Oct@ Estonia0–1L
29 Sepvs Iceland0–3L
26 Sep@ Bulgaria2–1W
6 Jun@ Albania1–0W
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

29 Sep 2026Luxembourg v Iceland0–3
Iceland vs Luxembourg head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland5320+1111
2Estonia5230+29
3Bulgaria5113-74
4Luxembourg5104-63

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Kazakhstan Slovakia 119%4.20X22%3.60258%1.85 1.0–1.8xG X2Slovakia or draw 81%@1.22
Faroe Islands Moldova 154%1.80X25%3.50221%4.75 1.6–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.22
Estonia Bulgaria 149%2.05X26%3.25225%3.80 1.2–0.7xG 1XEstonia or draw 75%@1.25
Lithuania Liechtenstein 173%1.12X18%8.0029%19.00 1.7–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.36
Germany Netherlands 148%1.90X23%4.20230%3.74 1.4–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.80
Greece Serbia 157%1.48X23%4.70220%6.95 1.6–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22
Gibraltar Malta 118%8.00X25%3.80256%1.48 0.7–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 81%@1.20
Switzerland Scotland 157%1.77X23%3.74220%5.01 1.7–0.8xG 1XSwitzerland or draw 80%@1.20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Iceland vs Luxembourg?

On our numbers Iceland have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Luxembourg 12%.

How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Luxembourg?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Our predicted score is Iceland 2–0 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Iceland vs Luxembourg?

Iceland vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Ice Rink Laugardalur.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.