Value bet: Italy to win @ 2.78 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultBelgium to win42% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.69
Belgium vs Italy prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Belgium host Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday 15 November, kicking off at 20:45 WAT. Belgium sit 3rd with 6 points from 4 games, while Italy are 2nd on 7. The gap is just 1 point, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Belgium – form over the last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to France 1–4 on the road. They score 1.8 and concede 1.3 per game.
Italy – form over the last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Türkiye 3–1 at home. On their travels they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They score 1.7 and concede 0.8 per game.
On form, Italy have the edge: 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 25 Sep 2026, finished Italy 0–2 Belgium.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Belgium 1.5 – 1.5 Italy in expected goals – roughly 3.0 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Belgium 42% · draw 19% · Italy 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Italy to win at 2.78 – we make it 39%, the price implies 36%.
ZoraTips prediction
ZoraTips tip: Both teams to score, rated at 64% confidence at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Belgium 1–1 Italy. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Belgium42%fair 2.41 · @2.18
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.76
Italy39%fair 2.56 · @2.78
2.99Expected goals
1.52Belgium xG
1.47Italy xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Belgium 1.5 – 1.5 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Belgium vs Italy?
On our numbers Belgium have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Italy 39%.
How many goals will there be in Belgium vs Italy?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Italy?
Our predicted score is Belgium 1–1 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Belgium vs Italy?
Belgium vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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