Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.82 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultPenybont to win58% · @1.05
Double chanceEither team to win89% · fair 1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.82
GoalsOver 2.5 goals83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–17% · fair 13.97
Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Penybont v Cardiff Draconians in the Welsh Cup – Friday 13 November, 20:45 WAT, Bryntirion Park.
Form guide
Penybont – form over the last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Caernarfon Town 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. 2.5 goals per match shows an attack in good shape.
Cardiff Draconians – form over the last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Swansea University 0–2 on the road. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.5 and concede 1.5 per game.
On form, Penybont have the edge: 2.5 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Penybont 2.6 – 1.9 Cardiff Draconians in expected goals – roughly 4.5 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 83% for over 2.5 goals, 59% for GG.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Penybont 58% · draw 11% · Cardiff Draconians 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.82.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.82 – we make it 59%, the price implies 55%.
ZoraTips prediction
Our tip: Over 3.5 goals, rated at 63% confidence at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Penybont 2–2 Cardiff Draconians. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Penybont58%fair 1.73 · @1.05
Draw11%fair 9.44 · @8.90
Cardiff Draconians32%fair 3.17 · @16.25
4.50Expected goals
2.61Penybont xG
1.89Cardiff Draconians xG
59%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–17%
2–27%
3–16%
3–26%
1–15%
1–25%
From our goals model: Penybont 2.6 – 1.9 Cardiff Draconians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penybont to win
58%
1.73
1.05
Double chance
Either team to win
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.71
1.82 ▲
Draw no bet
Penybont (draw no bet)
65%
1.55
–
Asian handicap
Cardiff Draconians +1.5 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
55%
1.82
1.61
First team to score
Penybont to score first
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Penybont ahead at half-time
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penybont / FT Penybont
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
7%
13.97
–
Recent results
Penybont – last 6
WWWWLW
6 Nov
vs Caernarfon Town
2–0
W
31 Oct
@ Cardiff MET
5–0
W
18 Oct
@ Afan Lido
3–2
W
9 Oct
vs Barry Town
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs Airbus UK
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Cardiff Draconians – last 6
LWLWDD
7 Nov
@ Swansea University
0–2
L
31 Oct
vs Afan Lido
2–0
W
23 Oct
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
1–3
L
17 Oct
@ Radnor Valley
3–1
W
10 Oct
vs Carmarthen Town
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs Newport City
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penybont and Cardiff Draconians.
What is the prediction for Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
Our pick is Over 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
On our numbers Penybont have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Cardiff Draconians 32%.
How many goals will there be in Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
Our predicted score is Penybont 2–2 Cardiff Draconians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians?
Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians (Welsh Cup) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Bryntirion Park.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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