Wed 11 Nov

York v Northampton: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England · York Community Stadium

York

LLWDD
4–0
FT

Northampton

LDWLW
York 64%Draw 21%Northampton 15% Expected goals 1.90 – 0.77
85%
ZoraTips pick

York or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1

Value bet: York to win @ 1.83 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultYork to win ✓64% · @1.83
Double chanceYork or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38

York vs Northampton prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

FA Cup action on Saturday 7 November: York take on Northampton at York Community Stadium from 16:00 WAT.

Form guide

York – form over the last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Grimsby 2–5 on the road. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.3 and concede 1.8 per game.

Northampton – form over the last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Oldham 0–1 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 0.7 per game.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 10 Oct 2026, finished York 1–1 Northampton.

Goals outlook

Our model projects York 1.9 – 0.8 Northampton in expected goals – roughly 2.7 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 50% for over 2.5, 57% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: York 64% · draw 21% · Northampton 15%.
  • Safer play: York or draw (85%) at 1.22.
  • Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
  • Value angle: York to win at 1.83 – we make it 64%, the price implies 55%.

Our tip before kick-off

Before kick-off we picked York or draw, rated at 85% confidence at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: York 1–0 Northampton. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

York64%fair 1.55 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.60
Northampton15%fair 6.68 · @4.20
2.67Expected goals
1.90York xG
0.77Northampton xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%

From our goals model: York 1.9 – 0.8 Northampton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultYork to win ✓64%1.551.83 ▲
Double chanceYork or draw ✓85%1.181.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗57%1.751.80
Draw no betYork (draw no bet) ✓81%1.23–
Asian handicapYork -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75%1.341.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗50%2.001.91
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗71%1.401.33
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓85%1.171.12
First team to scoreYork to score first ✓66%1.51–
Half-time resultYork ahead at half-time ✓45%2.20–
Half-time / full-timeHT York / FT York ✓41%2.46–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.38–

Recent results

York – last 6

LLWDDD
31 Oct@ Grimsby2–5L
27 Oct@ Barnet1–3L
24 Octvs Port Vale2–0W
20 Octvs Accrington ST1–1D
17 Oct@ Newport County1–1D
10 Octvs Northampton1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Northampton – last 6

LDWLWD
3 Novvs Oldham0–1L
31 Oct@ Accrington ST1–1D
24 Octvs Colchester2–0W
20 Octvs Tranmere0–1L
17 Oct@ Grimsby2–0W
10 Oct@ York1–1D
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

10 Oct 2026York v Northampton1–1
York vs Northampton head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Accrington ST0 Wycombe2 129%3.30X21%3.40250%2.10 1.2–1.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Barnet3 Tranmere0 159%1.67X22%3.90219%4.75 1.9–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Boreham Wood0 Wigan3 165%1.70X22%4.20213%4.20 2.8–1.3xG 1XBoreham Wood or draw 87%@1.22 ✗
FT Bradford7 Marine0 174%1.30X17%5.0029%10.00 2.4–0.7xG 1Bradford to win 74%@1.30 ✓
FT Bromley0 Rotherham2 129%2.05X52%3.60218%3.40 1.6–1.4xG 1XBromley or draw 82%@1.30 ✗
FT Burton Albion4 AFC Rushden & Diamonds0 176%1.08X16%10.0027%21.00 2.7–0.8xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 70%@1.33 ✓
FT Carlisle1 Salford City0 138%2.90X21%3.50242%2.30 1.5–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.50 ✗
FT Cheltenham2 FC Halifax Town0 164%1.90X14%3.90222%3.60 2.5–1.4xG 1Cheltenham to win 64%@1.90 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for York vs Northampton?

Our pick is York or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win York vs Northampton?

On our numbers York have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Northampton 15%.

How many goals will there be in York vs Northampton?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for York vs Northampton?

Our predicted score is York 1–0 Northampton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is York vs Northampton?

York vs Northampton (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at York Community Stadium.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.