Thu 12 Nov

Burton Albion v AFC Rushden & Diamonds: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England · Pirelli Stadium

Burton Albion

LWDDL
4–0
FT

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

WWWWL
Burton Albion 76%Draw 16%AFC Rushden & Diamonds 7% Expected goals 2.71 – 0.79
70%
ZoraTips pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.33Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBurton Albion to win ✓76% · @1.08
Double chanceBurton Albion or draw ✓93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.38
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.41

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

It is Burton Albion v AFC Rushden & Diamonds in the FA Cup – Saturday 7 November, 16:00 WAT, Pirelli Stadium.

Form guide

Burton Albion – form over the last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Wycombe 0–2 on the road. Goals have dried up: 0.7 per game.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds – form over the last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Morecambe 2–1 at home. 2.2 goals per match shows an attack in good shape.

On form, AFC Rushden & Diamonds have the edge: 2.2 points a game against 1.0.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Burton Albion 2.7 – 0.8 AFC Rushden & Diamonds in expected goals – roughly 3.5 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 70% likely and both teams score 51% of the time. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Burton Albion 76% · draw 16% · AFC Rushden & Diamonds 7%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.38.
  • Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.38 – we make it 51%, the price implies 42%.

Our tip before kick-off

Before kick-off we picked Over 2.5 goals, rated at 70% confidence at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Burton Albion 3–0 AFC Rushden & Diamonds. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Burton Albion76%fair 1.31 · @1.08
Draw16%fair 6.13 · @10.00
AFC Rushden & Diamonds7%fair 13.94 · @21.00
3.51Expected goals
2.71Burton Albion xG
0.79AFC Rushden & Diamonds xG
51%Both score
70%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–08%
3–18%
4–07%

From our goals model: Burton Albion 2.7 – 0.8 AFC Rushden & Diamonds expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBurton Albion to win ✓76%1.311.08
Double chanceBurton Albion or draw ✓93%1.081.01
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.972.38 ▲
Draw no betBurton Albion (draw no bet) ✓91%1.09–
Asian handicapBurton Albion -1 (Asian handicap) ✓72%1.39–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.161.10
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70%1.431.33
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗52%1.931.83
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓69%1.441.40
First team to scoreBurton Albion to score first ✓75%1.33–
Half-time resultBurton Albion ahead at half-time ✓58%1.73–
Half-time / full-timeHT Burton Albion / FT Burton Albion ✓54%1.85–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.41–

Recent results

Burton Albion – last 6

LWDDLD
31 Oct@ Wycombe0–2L
24 Octvs Leyton Orient2–1W
20 Octvs Bradford0–0D
17 Oct@ Peterborough2–2D
10 Oct@ Doncaster0–1L
6 Oct@ Grimsby0–0D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

AFC Rushden & Diamonds – last 6

WWWWLD
17 Octvs Morecambe2–1W
3 Octvs Braintree2–1W
19 Sepvs Peterborough Sports3–1W
5 Sep@ Desborough Town3–0W
29 Aug@ Chasetown1–3L
10 Julvs Milton Keynes Irish2–2D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds.

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Accrington ST0 Wycombe2 129%3.30X21%3.40250%2.10 1.2–1.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Barnet3 Tranmere0 159%1.67X22%3.90219%4.75 1.9–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Boreham Wood0 Wigan3 165%1.70X22%4.20213%4.20 2.8–1.3xG 1XBoreham Wood or draw 87%@1.22 ✗
FT Bradford7 Marine0 174%1.30X17%5.0029%10.00 2.4–0.7xG 1Bradford to win 74%@1.30 ✓
FT Bromley0 Rotherham2 129%2.05X52%3.60218%3.40 1.6–1.4xG 1XBromley or draw 82%@1.30 ✗
FT Carlisle1 Salford City0 138%2.90X21%3.50242%2.30 1.5–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.50 ✗
FT Cheltenham2 FC Halifax Town0 164%1.90X14%3.90222%3.60 2.5–1.4xG 1Cheltenham to win 64%@1.90 ✓
FT Crewe2 AFC Wimbledon1 138%2.30X22%3.30240%3.10 1.3–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

On our numbers Burton Albion have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 16% and AFC Rushden & Diamonds 7%.

How many goals will there be in Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

Our predicted score is Burton Albion 3–0 AFC Rushden & Diamonds, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Pirelli Stadium.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.