Wed 11 Nov

Crewe v AFC Wimbledon: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England · Alexandra Stadium

Crewe

DLLWW
2–1
FT

AFC Wimbledon

LLDLL
Crewe 38%Draw 22%AFC Wimbledon 40% Expected goals 1.27 – 1.30
73%
ZoraTips pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.30Odds
2

Value bet: AFC Wimbledon to win @ 3.10 – our chance 40% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultAFC Wimbledon to win ✗40% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.14

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

It is Crewe v AFC Wimbledon in the FA Cup – Saturday 7 November, 16:00 WAT, Alexandra Stadium.

Form guide

Crewe – form over the last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Barnet 1–1 at home. They score 1.3 and concede 2.0 per game.

AFC Wimbledon – form over the last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Stockport County 1–2 on the road. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.7 per game.

On form, Crewe have the edge: 1.3 points a game against 0.2.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Crewe 1.3 – 1.3 AFC Wimbledon in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 47% for over 2.5, 56% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Crewe 38% · draw 22% · AFC Wimbledon 40%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
  • Value angle: AFC Wimbledon to win at 3.10 – we make it 40%, the price implies 32%.

Our tip before kick-off

Before kick-off we picked Under 3.5 goals, rated at 73% confidence at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Crewe 1–1 AFC Wimbledon. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Crewe38%fair 2.63 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.30
AFC Wimbledon40%fair 2.51 · @3.10
2.57Expected goals
1.27Crewe xG
1.30AFC Wimbledon xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

From our goals model: Crewe 1.3 – 1.3 AFC Wimbledon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAFC Wimbledon to win ✗40%2.513.10 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.291.33
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓56%1.781.75
Draw no betAFC Wimbledon (draw no bet) ✗51%1.96–
Asian handicapCrewe +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73%1.371.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗53%1.901.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.361.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓87%1.151.10
First team to scoreAFC Wimbledon to score first ✗47%2.13–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.30–
Half-time / full-timeHT AFC Wimbledon / FT AFC Wimbledon ✗22%4.62–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%12.14–

Recent results

Crewe – last 6

DLLWWD
31 Octvs Barnet1–1D
24 Oct@ Chesterfield1–5L
20 Oct@ Exeter City0–2L
17 Octvs Rochdale3–2W
10 Oct@ Swindon Town1–0W
6 Oct@ Blackpool2–2D
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

AFC Wimbledon – last 6

LLDLLL
31 Oct@ Stockport County1–2L
27 Octvs Arsenal U211–2L
24 Octvs Wycombe1–1D
20 Octvs Mansfield Town0–3L
17 Oct@ Sheffield Wednesday0–5L
10 Oct@ Plymouth1–2L
0.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Crewe and AFC Wimbledon.

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Accrington ST0 Wycombe2 129%3.30X21%3.40250%2.10 1.2–1.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Barnet3 Tranmere0 159%1.67X22%3.90219%4.75 1.9–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Boreham Wood0 Wigan3 165%1.70X22%4.20213%4.20 2.8–1.3xG 1XBoreham Wood or draw 87%@1.22 ✗
FT Bradford7 Marine0 174%1.30X17%5.0029%10.00 2.4–0.7xG 1Bradford to win 74%@1.30 ✓
FT Bromley0 Rotherham2 129%2.05X52%3.60218%3.40 1.6–1.4xG 1XBromley or draw 82%@1.30 ✗
FT Burton Albion4 AFC Rushden & Diamonds0 176%1.08X16%10.0027%21.00 2.7–0.8xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 70%@1.33 ✓
FT Carlisle1 Salford City0 138%2.90X21%3.50242%2.30 1.5–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.50 ✗
FT Cheltenham2 FC Halifax Town0 164%1.90X14%3.90222%3.60 2.5–1.4xG 1Cheltenham to win 64%@1.90 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?

On our numbers Crewe have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AFC Wimbledon 40%.

How many goals will there be in Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?

Our predicted score is Crewe 1–1 AFC Wimbledon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon?

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Alexandra Stadium.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.