Value bet: Os Marialvas to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultOs Marialvas to win ✓58% · @1.91
Double chanceOs Marialvas or draw ✓83% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.78
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C action on Sunday 8 November: Benfica Castelo Branco take on Os Marialvas from 16:00 WAT. Benfica Castelo Branco sit 8th with 10 points from 8 games (in the bottom half), while Os Marialvas are 1st on 19 (top of the table).
Form guide
Benfica Castelo Branco – form over the last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Atlético Malveira 2–2 on the road. They score 1.3 and concede 1.8 per game.
Os Marialvas – form over the last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat UD da Serra 2–1 at home. On their travels they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They score 1.5 and concede 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
On form, Os Marialvas have the edge: 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Benfica Castelo Branco 0.9 – 1.8 Os Marialvas in expected goals – roughly 2.7 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 49% for over 2.5, 58% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Benfica Castelo Branco 17% · draw 25% · Os Marialvas 58%.
Safer play: Os Marialvas or draw (83%) at 1.19.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.78.
Value angle: Os Marialvas to win at 1.91 – we make it 58%, the price implies 52%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 73% confidence at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: Benfica Castelo Branco 0–2 Os Marialvas. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Benfica Castelo Branco17%fair 5.83 · @3.58
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.14
Os Marialvas58%fair 1.72 · @1.91
2.73Expected goals
0.90Benfica Castelo Branco xG
1.83Os Marialvas xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Benfica Castelo Branco 0.9 – 1.8 Os Marialvas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Os Marialvas to win✓
58%
1.72
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Os Marialvas or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
1.78
Draw no bet
Os Marialvas (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Benfica Castelo Branco +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.24
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Os Marialvas to score first✓
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Os Marialvas ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Os Marialvas / FT Os Marialvas✓
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.18
–
Recent results
Benfica Castelo Branco – last 6
DLWLWL
1 Nov
@ Atlético Malveira
2–2
D
25 Oct
vs O Elvas
1–3
L
11 Oct
@ Mortágua
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs AD Nogueirense
2–3
L
6 Sep
@ FC Alverca II
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Fátima
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Os Marialvas – last 6
WWLDWW
1 Nov
vs UD da Serra
2–1
W
25 Oct
@ Fazendense
2–1
W
16 Oct
@ Chaves
1–2
L
11 Oct
vs Sertanense
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Ovarense
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Nazarenos
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica Castelo Branco and Os Marialvas.
What is the prediction for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
On our numbers Benfica Castelo Branco have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Os Marialvas 58%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Our predicted score is Benfica Castelo Branco 0–2 Os Marialvas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
