Value bet: Mortágua to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMortágua to win ✗42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.64
AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is AD Nogueirense v Mortágua in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C – Sunday 8 November, 16:00 WAT. AD Nogueirense sit 10th with 9 points from 8 games (in the bottom half), while Mortágua are 4th on 15 (in the top four).
Form guide
AD Nogueirense – form over the last 5: DLDWD Most recently they drew with Oliveira Hospital 3–3 on the road. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.3 and concede 1.7 per game.
Mortágua – form over the last 5: DWLLD Most recently they drew with FC Alverca II 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up: 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model projects AD Nogueirense 1.2 – 1.4 Mortágua in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 44% for over 2.5, 58% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: AD Nogueirense 34% · draw 24% · Mortágua 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.88.
Value angle: Mortágua to win at 2.62 – we make it 42%, the price implies 38%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 69% confidence at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: AD Nogueirense 1–1 Mortágua. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
AD Nogueirense34%fair 2.91 · @2.56
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @2.86
Mortágua42%fair 2.39 · @2.62
2.57Expected goals
1.21AD Nogueirense xG
1.37Mortágua xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: AD Nogueirense 1.2 – 1.4 Mortágua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mortágua to win✗
42%
2.39
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.88 ▲
Draw no bet
Mortágua (draw no bet)
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
AD Nogueirense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.56
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.16
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Mortágua to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.64
–
Recent results
AD Nogueirense – last 6
DLDWDD
1 Nov
@ Oliveira Hospital
3–3
D
25 Oct
@ FC Alverca II
0–3
L
11 Oct
vs Naval 1893
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Benfica Castelo Branco
3–2
W
6 Sep
vs UD da Serra
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Naval 1893
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mortágua – last 6
DWLLDW
1 Nov
vs FC Alverca II
0–0
D
25 Oct
@ Naval 1893
2–0
W
11 Oct
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Leça
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ UD da Serra
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Fazendense
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Nogueirense and Mortágua.
What is the prediction for AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
On our numbers AD Nogueirense have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mortágua 42%.
How many goals will there be in AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
Our predicted score is AD Nogueirense 1–1 Mortágua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
