Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Penafiel v Lusitânia Lourosa in the Segunda Liga – Sunday 15 November, 16:30 WAT, Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Penafiel sit 1st with 22 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th on 19 (in the top four). The gap is just 3 points, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Penafiel – form over the last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Chaves 3–2 on the road. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 1.2 per game.
Lusitânia Lourosa – form over the last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Feirense 0–1 on the road. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.5 and concede 1.2 per game.
On form, Penafiel have the edge: 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 16 Feb 2026, finished Penafiel 2–0 Lusitânia Lourosa.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Penafiel 1.5 – 1.1 Lusitânia Lourosa in expected goals – roughly 2.6 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 47% for over 2.5, 57% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Penafiel 46% · draw 24% · Lusitânia Lourosa 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.78.
ZoraTips prediction
Our tip: Under 3.5 goals, rated at 73% confidence at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Penafiel46%fair 2.17 · @2.29
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.89
Lusitânia Lourosa30%fair 3.36 · @3.30
2.63Expected goals
1.49Penafiel xG
1.14Lusitânia Lourosa xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.5 – 1.1 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lusitânia Lourosa 30%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
