Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBenfica to win ✓73% · @1.22
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓92% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.05
Estrela vs Benfica prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Estrela host Benfica in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 8 November, kicking off at 21:30 WAT. Estrela sit 12th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Benfica are 2nd on 28 (in the top four). A 18-point gap separates them – two very different campaigns.
Form guide
Estrela – form over the last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Moreirense 1–2 on the road. They score 1.0 and concede 1.8 per game.
Benfica – form over the last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Lech Poznan 3–1 at home. They are averaging 3.0 goals a game – a real threat going forward.
On form, Benfica have the edge: 3.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Estrela 0.9 – 2.7 Benfica in expected goals – roughly 3.5 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Estrela 8% · draw 20% · Benfica 73%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – we make it 60%, the price implies 56%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Benfica to win, rated at 73% confidence at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Estrela 0–2 Benfica. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Estrela8%fair 13.13 · @11.00
Draw20%fair 5.11 · @6.50
Benfica73%fair 1.37 · @1.22
3.53Expected goals
0.87Estrela xG
2.65Benfica xG
60%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
0–39%
1–29%
1–38%
0–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Estrela 0.9 – 2.7 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
73%
1.37
1.22
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
92%
1.08
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)✓
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
Benfica -1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.16
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.36
First team to score
Benfica to score first✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
52%
1.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.05
–
Recent results
Estrela – last 6
LLWLLD
31 Oct
@ Moreirense
1–2
L
24 Oct
vs Casa Pia
0–2
L
17 Oct
@ Fazendense
2–1
W
11 Oct
@ Arouca
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Academico Viseu
0–2
L
14 Sep
@ Rio Ave
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWW
5 Nov
vs Lech Poznan
3–1
W
2 Nov
vs Alverca
1–0
W
29 Oct
vs GIL Vicente
4–1
W
26 Oct
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
22 Oct
@ Omonia Nicosia
4–1
W
15 Oct
vs Celtic
4–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela and Benfica.
Our pick is Benfica to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?
On our numbers Estrela have a 8% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Benfica 73%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is Estrela 0–2 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Benfica?
Estrela vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
