Alverca 61%Draw 21%Casa Pia 18%Expected goals 1.70 – 0.78
82%
ZoraTips pick
Alverca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Alverca to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlverca to win ✗61% · @1.83
Double chanceAlverca or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.59
Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Alverca v Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga – Saturday 7 November, 19:00 WAT, FC Alverca Sports Complex. Alverca sit 11th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Casa Pia are 16th on 8 (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Alverca – form over the last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Benfica 0–1 on the road. They score 1.3 and concede 0.7 per game.
Casa Pia – form over the last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Sporting CP 0–2 at home. On their travels they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 1.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Alverca 1.7 – 0.8 Casa Pia in expected goals – roughly 2.5 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 44% for over 2.5, 53% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Alverca 61% · draw 21% · Casa Pia 18%.
Safer play: Alverca or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Alverca to win at 1.83 – we make it 61%, the price implies 55%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Alverca or draw, rated at 82% confidence at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Alverca 1–0 Casa Pia. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Alverca61%fair 1.65 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.50
Casa Pia18%fair 5.41 · @4.20
2.48Expected goals
1.70Alverca xG
0.78Casa Pia xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alverca 1.7 – 0.8 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alverca to win✗
61%
1.65
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Alverca or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Alverca (draw no bet)
77%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Casa Pia +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Alverca to score first✗
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alverca / FT Alverca✗
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.59
–
Recent results
Alverca – last 6
LLDWWW
2 Nov
@ Benfica
0–1
L
24 Oct
vs Arouca
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Tondela
0–0
D
12 Oct
@ Famalicao
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Nacional
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 6
LWWLWL
30 Oct
vs Sporting CP
0–2
L
24 Oct
@ Estrela
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Alpendorada
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs Santa Clara
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Estoril
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs FC Porto
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Alverca or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Alverca have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Casa Pia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Alverca 1–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
