Guadalajara v Navalcarnero: numbers & prediction

Guadalajara vs Navalcarnero prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

It is Guadalajara v Navalcarnero in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 – Sunday 8 November, 12:00 WAT. Guadalajara sit 9th with 13 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Navalcarnero are 7th on 16 (in the top half). The gap is just 3 points, so three points here could swap their places.

Form guide

Guadalajara – form over the last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Calvo Sotelo 2–1 on the road. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. 2.3 goals per match shows an attack in good shape.

Navalcarnero – form over the last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Atlético Paso 3–1 at home. On their travels they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are averaging 2.2 goals a game – a real threat going forward.

On form, Navalcarnero have the edge: 2.0 points a game against 1.5.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Guadalajara 2.1 – 1.1 Navalcarnero in expected goals – roughly 3.2 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

• Match result chances: Guadalajara 60% · draw 25% · Navalcarnero 16%.
• Safer play: Guadalajara or draw (84%) at 1.19.
• Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.61.

Our tip before kick-off

Before kick-off we picked Guadalajara to win, rated at 60% confidence at odds of 1.79, above our fair price of 1.68, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Guadalajara 2–1 Navalcarnero. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.