Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓67% · @1.70
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Toluca vs Monterrey prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Toluca host Monterrey in the Liga MX on Sunday 8 November, kicking off at 02:00 WAT at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca sit 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Monterrey are 10th on 21 (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Toluca – form over the last 5: DDDDL Most recently they drew with Club America 2–2 on the road. They score 1.8 and concede 2.0 per game.
Monterrey – form over the last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Club Tijuana 3–3 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. 2.0 goals per match shows an attack in good shape.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 7 Sep 2026, finished Toluca 2–0 Monterrey.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Toluca 2.4 – 1.0 Monterrey in expected goals – roughly 3.4 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 65% for over 2.5 goals, 64% for GG. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Toluca 67% · draw 19% · Monterrey 14%.
Safer play: Toluca or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.50.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Toluca to win, rated at 67% confidence at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.49, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Toluca 2–1 Monterrey. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Toluca67%fair 1.49 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @4.00
Monterrey14%fair 7.26 · @4.50
3.38Expected goals
2.38Toluca xG
1.01Monterrey xG
64%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.4 – 1.0 Monterrey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Toluca to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Toluca vs Monterrey?
On our numbers Toluca have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Monterrey 14%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Monterrey?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Monterrey?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 Monterrey, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca vs Monterrey (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
