Ethiopia v Malawi Prediction & Expected Goals (9 Jun) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultEthiopia to win ✗46% · @2.45

Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗6% · fair 15.85

Ethiopia vs Malawi prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Ethiopia host Malawi in the Friendlies on Tuesday 9 June, kicking off at 16:00 WAT at Dire Dawa Stadium.

Form guide

Ethiopia – form over the last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Malawi 1–0 at home. They score 1.7 and concede 0.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 6 Jun 2026, finished Ethiopia 1–0 Malawi.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Ethiopia 1.0 – 0.7 Malawi in expected goals – roughly 1.7 goals in all. This looks a tight one: under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Betting angles

Match result chances: Ethiopia 46% · draw 23% · Malawi 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Ethiopia to win at 2.45 – we make it 46%, the price implies 41%.

Our tip before kick-off

Before kick-off we picked Under 2.5 goals, rated at 68% confidence at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.47, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Ethiopia 0–0 Malawi. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Ethiopia46%fair 2.17 · @2.45

Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.10

Malawi31%fair 3.20 · @2.75

1.70Expected goals

0.98Ethiopia xG

0.71Malawi xG

50%Both score

32%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–018%

1–018%

0–113%

1–113%

2–09%

2–16%

From our goals model: Ethiopia 1.0 – 0.7 Malawi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Ethiopia to win ✗	46%	2.17	2.45 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	77%	1.29	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	50%	1.98	1.95
Draw no bet	Ethiopia (draw no bet)	60%	1.68	–
Asian handicap	Malawi +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	79%	1.26	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	58%	1.73	1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	68%	1.47	1.55 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	85%	1.18	1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	97%	1.03	–
First team to score	Ethiopia to score first	47%	2.12	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	54%	1.85	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✓	26%	3.88	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	6%	15.85	–

Ethiopia – last 3

WWW

6 Jun	vs Malawi	1–0	W
31 Mar	vs Sao Tome and Principe	1–0	W
27 Mar	@ Sao Tome and Principe	3–0	W

1.7Scored / game

0.0Conceded / game

0%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Malawi – last 1

6 Jun

@ Ethiopia

0–1

0.0Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

0%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ethiopia vs Malawi?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.

Who will win Ethiopia vs Malawi?

On our numbers Ethiopia have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Malawi 31%.

How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Malawi?

We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ethiopia vs Malawi?

Our predicted score is Ethiopia 0–0 Malawi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.

When is Ethiopia vs Malawi?

Ethiopia vs Malawi (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Dire Dawa Stadium.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Ethiopia v Malawi: numbers & prediction

Ethiopia

Malawi

Under 2.5 goals