Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Sri Lanka to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBangladesh to win ✓43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.09
Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Bangladesh v Sri Lanka in the SAFF Championship – Wednesday 11 November, 15:00 WAT, Bangabandhu National Stadium. Bangladesh sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, while Sri Lanka are 2nd on 1. The gap is just 2 points, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Bangladesh – form over the last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Indonesia 2–9 on the road. Goals have dried up: 0.7 per game.
Sri Lanka – form over the last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Mauritius 3–2 on the road. On their travels they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. 2.5 goals per match shows an attack in good shape.
On form, Sri Lanka have the edge: 2.5 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Bangladesh 1.0 – 0.8 Sri Lanka in expected goals – roughly 1.8 goals in all. This looks a tight one: under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Bangladesh 43% · draw 23% · Sri Lanka 33%.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Sri Lanka to win at 3.40 – we make it 33%, the price implies 29%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Under 3.5 goals, rated at 82% confidence at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Bangladesh 0–0 Sri Lanka. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Bangladesh43%fair 2.30 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @2.90
Sri Lanka33%fair 3.00 · @3.40
1.80Expected goals
0.99Bangladesh xG
0.81Sri Lanka xG
45%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–017%
1–016%
0–113%
1–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Bangladesh 1.0 – 0.8 Sri Lanka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bangladesh to win✓
43%
2.30
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.83
Draw no bet
Bangladesh (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Sri Lanka +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.70 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
1.08
First team to score
Bangladesh to score first✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.09
–
Recent results
Bangladesh – last 6
LLLWLL
1 Oct
@ Indonesia
2–9
L
28 Sep
@ Singapore
0–1
L
25 Sep
vs Malaysia
0–3
L
5 Jun
@ San Marino
2–1
W
31 Mar
@ Singapore
0–1
L
26 Mar
@ Vietnam
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sri Lanka – last 6
WLWWWW
5 Oct
@ Mauritius
3–2
W
2 Oct
@ Mauritius
0–3
L
30 Sep
@ Seychelles
2–0
W
27 Sep
@ Seychelles
3–0
W
8 Jun
vs Bhutan
4–1
W
31 Mar
@ Chinese Taipei
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
What is the prediction for Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
On our numbers Bangladesh have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sri Lanka 33%.
How many goals will there be in Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Our predicted score is Bangladesh 0–0 Sri Lanka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka (SAFF Championship) kicks off on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Bangabandhu National Stadium.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
India1
Maldives0