Fri 13 Nov

Leek Town v Morecambe: numbers & prediction

FA Trophy · England

Leek Town

WLLLW
Sat 14 Nov 2026

Morecambe

DLWWW
Leek Town 22%Draw 35%Morecambe 43% Expected goals 1.46 – 1.95
65%
ZoraTips pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.40

6/10Rating
1.40Odds
X

Value bet: Draw @ 4.30 – our chance 35% vs 23% implied by the price (edge +52%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultMorecambe to win43% · @1.46
Double chanceMorecambe or draw78% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.51
GoalsOver 1.5 goals84% · @1.08
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.89

Leek Town vs Morecambe prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

It is Leek Town v Morecambe in the FA Trophy – Saturday 14 November, 16:00 WAT.

Form guide

Leek Town – form over the last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Ilkeston Town 3–2 at home. 2.3 goals per match shows an attack in good shape.

Morecambe – form over the last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Hereford 2–2 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 1.8 per game.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Leek Town 1.5 – 2.0 Morecambe in expected goals – roughly 3.4 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 65% likely and both teams score 57% of the time. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Leek Town 22% · draw 35% · Morecambe 43%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.51.
  • Value angle: Draw at 4.30 – we make it 35%, the price implies 23%.

ZoraTips prediction

Our tip: Over 2.5 goals, rated at 65% confidence at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Leek Town 1–2 Morecambe. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Leek Town22%fair 4.51 · @5.00
Draw35%fair 2.83 · @4.30
Morecambe43%fair 2.35 · @1.46
3.41Expected goals
1.46Leek Town xG
1.95Morecambe xG
57%Both score
65%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
0–26%

From our goals model: Leek Town 1.5 – 2.0 Morecambe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMorecambe to win43%2.351.46
Double chanceMorecambe or draw78%1.281.09
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score57%1.741.51
Draw no betMorecambe (draw no bet)66%1.52–
Asian handicapLeek Town +1 (Asian handicap)64%1.55–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals84%1.181.08
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals65%1.531.40
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals56%1.791.63
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals74%1.351.23
First team to scoreMorecambe to score first55%1.81–
Half-time resultMorecambe ahead at half-time38%2.62–
Half-time / full-timeHT Morecambe / FT Morecambe31%3.28–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29%10.89–

Recent results

Leek Town – last 6

WLLLWW
7 Novvs Ilkeston Town3–2W
3 Nov@ Guiseley AFC1–4L
31 Oct@ Curzon Ashton1–2L
27 Oct@ Bury3–5L
24 Octvs Bootle4–1W
17 Oct@ Lancaster City2–1W
2.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Morecambe – last 6

DLWWWL
10 Novvs Hereford2–2D
7 Nov@ Hednesford Town2–6L
31 Octvs Scarborough Athletic2–0W
27 Octvs Darlington 18831–0W
24 Oct@ Merthyr Town3–1W
17 Oct@ AFC Rushden & Diamonds1–2L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Leek Town and Morecambe.

Leek Town vs Morecambe head-to-head page →

More FA Trophy predictions

League hub
Braintree Kettering Town 151%1.48X15%4.35234%4.70 2.5–2.0xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 74%@1.40
Bridlington Town Macclesfield 118%10.75X33%6.10249%1.16 1.5–2.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.40
Darlington 1883 Bury 132%2.05X37%3.54230%2.88 2.0–1.9xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 65%@1.66
Farnham Town Ebbsfleet United 124%4.05X36%3.78240%1.65 1.4–1.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.48
Hebburn Town Guiseley AFC 128%1.98X16%3.76256%2.88 1.6–2.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 68%@1.53
Hednesford Town Hemel Hempstead Town 134%1.91X36%3.90230%2.96 1.6–1.5xG 1XHednesford Town or draw 70%@1.28
Hereford Brackley Town 156%1.59X16%3.94229%4.25 1.8–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.45
King's Lynn Town Stourbridge 160%1.41X15%4.25225%5.75 1.9–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.47

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Leek Town vs Morecambe?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Leek Town vs Morecambe?

On our numbers Leek Town have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Morecambe 43%.

How many goals will there be in Leek Town vs Morecambe?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Leek Town vs Morecambe?

Our predicted score is Leek Town 1–2 Morecambe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is Leek Town vs Morecambe?

Leek Town vs Morecambe (FA Trophy) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.