Newtown AFC 62%Draw 15%Caerphilly Athletic 24%Expected goals 2.33 – 1.35
69%
ZoraTips pick
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.36
7/10Rating
1.36Odds
Picks by market
ResultNewtown AFC to win62% · @1.42
Double chanceEither team to win85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.49
GoalsOver 2.5 goals69% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.83
Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Newtown AFC host Caerphilly Athletic in the Welsh Cup on Saturday 14 November, kicking off at 15:00 WAT at Latham Park.
Form guide
Newtown AFC – form over the last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Ruthin Town 2–0 on the road. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. 2.5 goals per match shows an attack in good shape. 4 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
Caerphilly Athletic – form over the last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Afan Lido 2–3 on the road. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.7 and concede 1.7 per game.
On form, Newtown AFC have the edge: 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Newtown AFC 2.3 – 1.4 Caerphilly Athletic in expected goals – roughly 3.7 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 69% likely and both teams score 56% of the time.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Newtown AFC 62% · draw 15% · Caerphilly Athletic 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.49.
ZoraTips prediction
We back Over 2.5 goals, rated at 69% confidence at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Newtown AFC 2–1 Caerphilly Athletic. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Newtown AFC62%fair 1.62 · @1.42
Draw15%fair 6.84 · @4.45
Caerphilly Athletic24%fair 4.23 · @5.20
3.69Expected goals
2.33Newtown AFC xG
1.35Caerphilly Athletic xG
56%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Newtown AFC 2.3 – 1.4 Caerphilly Athletic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newtown AFC to win
62%
1.62
1.42
Double chance
Either team to win
85%
1.17
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.77
1.49
Draw no bet
Newtown AFC (draw no bet)
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Caerphilly Athletic +1.5 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
52%
1.93
1.71
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.27
First team to score
Newtown AFC to score first
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Newtown AFC ahead at half-time
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newtown AFC / FT Newtown AFC
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Newtown AFC – last 6
WWDWDW
6 Nov
@ Ruthin Town
2–0
W
31 Oct
vs Buckley Town
2–0
W
24 Oct
@ Rhyl
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs Llanuwchllyn
7–0
W
10 Oct
vs Bangor City 1876 FC
0–0
D
3 Oct
@ Mold Alexandra
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Caerphilly Athletic – last 6
LLWWWL
6 Nov
@ Afan Lido
2–3
L
30 Oct
vs Caerau (Ely)
0–1
L
23 Oct
@ Carmarthen Town
3–1
W
17 Oct
vs Chepstow Town
1–0
W
9 Oct
vs Newport City
3–2
W
3 Oct
@ Swansea University
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newtown AFC and Caerphilly Athletic.
What is the prediction for Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic?
On our numbers Newtown AFC have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Caerphilly Athletic 24%.
How many goals will there be in Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Our predicted score is Newtown AFC 2–1 Caerphilly Athletic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic (Welsh Cup) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Latham Park.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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