FC Porto 59%Draw 21%Napoli 20%Expected goals 2.02 – 1.11
80%
ZoraTips pick
FC Porto or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: FC Porto to win @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFC Porto to win ✓59% · @1.83
Double chanceFC Porto or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10
FC Porto vs Napoli prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
FC Porto host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, kicking off at 21:00 WAT. FC Porto sit 26th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Napoli are 27th on 3 (in the bottom half). The gap is down to goal difference, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
FC Porto – form over the last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Estoril 4–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.7 and concede 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
Napoli – form over the last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Juventus 0–2 on the road. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. 2.0 goals per match shows an attack in good shape.
On form, FC Porto have the edge: 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model projects FC Porto 2.0 – 1.1 Napoli in expected goals – roughly 3.1 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 59% for over 2.5 goals, 61% for GG.
Betting angles
Match result chances: FC Porto 59% · draw 21% · Napoli 20%.
Safer play: FC Porto or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.62.
Value angle: FC Porto to win at 1.83 – we make it 59%, the price implies 55%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked FC Porto or draw, rated at 80% confidence at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: FC Porto 2–1 Napoli. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
FC Porto59%fair 1.70 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.80
Napoli20%fair 4.88 · @4.20
3.13Expected goals
2.02FC Porto xG
1.11Napoli xG
61%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: FC Porto 2.0 – 1.1 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win✓
59%
1.70
1.83 ▲
Double chance
FC Porto or draw✓
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.62
Draw no bet
FC Porto (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Napoli +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.17
First team to score
FC Porto to score first
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.10
–
Recent results
FC Porto – last 6
WWWLLW
31 Oct
vs Estoril
4–0
W
28 Oct
vs Academico Viseu
1–0
W
24 Oct
@ GIL Vicente
1–0
W
20 Oct
vs PSV Eindhoven
0–1
L
14 Oct
@ Real Betis
2–3
L
10 Oct
@ Maritimo
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
LWDWLL
1 Nov
@ Juventus
0–2
L
28 Oct
@ Monza
4–1
W
24 Oct
vs AS Roma
3–3
D
20 Oct
vs BodoGlimt
4–3
W
17 Oct
@ Venezia
0–1
L
13 Oct
@ Villarreal
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Porto and Napoli.
Our pick is FC Porto or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FC Porto vs Napoli?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Napoli 20%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Napoli?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 2–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Napoli?
FC Porto vs Napoli (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
