Nairobi United 43%Draw 24%Mara Sugar 33%Expected goals 2.13 – 1.87
75%
ZoraTips pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.52
8/10Rating
1.52Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.27 – our chance 63% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +43%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultNairobi United to win43% · @2.27
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @2.27
GoalsOver 2.5 goals76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.88
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
FKF Premier League action on Saturday 14 November: Nairobi United take on Mara Sugar from 12:00 WAT. Nairobi United sit 15th with 5 points from 6 games (in the bottom half), while Mara Sugar are 6th on 9 (in the top half).
Form guide
Nairobi United – form over the last 5: DLDDD Most recently they drew with GOR Mahia 1–1 on the road. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.2 and concede 1.3 per game.
Mara Sugar – form over the last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Migori Youth 2–1 at home. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.2 and concede 1.2 per game.
On form, Mara Sugar have the edge: 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 1 Apr 2026, finished Nairobi United 1–1 Mara Sugar.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Nairobi United 2.1 – 1.9 Mara Sugar in expected goals – roughly 4.0 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 76% for over 2.5 goals, 63% for GG.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Nairobi United 43% · draw 24% · Mara Sugar 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 2.27.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.27 – we make it 63%, the price implies 44%.
ZoraTips prediction
ZoraTips tip: Over 1.5 goals, rated at 75% confidence at odds of 1.52, above our fair price of 1.33, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Nairobi United 2–1 Mara Sugar. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Nairobi United43%fair 2.33 · @2.27
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.85
Mara Sugar33%fair 3.03 · @3.15
4.00Expected goals
2.13Nairobi United xG
1.87Mara Sugar xG
63%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
1–27%
3–16%
3–25%
From our goals model: Nairobi United 2.1 – 1.9 Mara Sugar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
On our numbers Nairobi United have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mara Sugar 33%.
How many goals will there be in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Our predicted score is Nairobi United 2–1 Mara Sugar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
