Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.24Odds
1
Value bet: Lucchese to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLucchese to win ✓65% · @1.85
Double chanceLucchese or draw ✓86% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.14
Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Serie D Girone E action on Sunday 8 November: Lucchese take on San Donato Tavarnelle at Porta Elisa from 14:30 WAT. Lucchese sit 6th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while San Donato Tavarnelle are 12th on 14 (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Lucchese – form over the last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Sestri Levante 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.2 and concede 1.7 per game.
San Donato Tavarnelle – form over the last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Montevarchi Calcio 1–0 at home. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.8 per game.
On form, San Donato Tavarnelle have the edge: 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Lucchese 2.1 – 0.9 San Donato Tavarnelle in expected goals – roughly 3.0 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 55% for over 2.5 goals, 60% for GG.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Lucchese 65% · draw 21% · San Donato Tavarnelle 14%.
Safer play: Lucchese or draw (86%) at 1.24.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Lucchese to win at 1.85 – we make it 65%, the price implies 54%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Lucchese or draw, rated at 86% confidence at odds of 1.24, above our fair price of 1.16, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Lucchese 2–0 San Donato Tavarnelle. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Lucchese65%fair 1.55 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.40
San Donato Tavarnelle14%fair 7.10 · @3.65
2.96Expected goals
2.08Lucchese xG
0.88San Donato Tavarnelle xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lucchese 2.1 – 0.9 San Donato Tavarnelle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lucchese to win✓
65%
1.55
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Lucchese or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.24 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Draw no bet
Lucchese (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Lucchese -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Lucchese to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Lucchese ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lucchese / FT Lucchese✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.14
–
Recent results
Lucchese – last 6
DLDLDD
4 Nov
vs Sestri Levante
1–1
D
1 Nov
@ Terranuova Traiana
2–3
L
25 Oct
vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
1–1
D
18 Oct
@ Sasso Marconi Zola
0–2
L
11 Oct
vs Ternana
2–2
D
7 Oct
@ Seravezza
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Donato Tavarnelle – last 6
WLWLDL
1 Nov
vs Montevarchi Calcio
1–0
W
25 Oct
@ Scandicci
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Tau Altopascio
1–0
W
11 Oct
@ Prato
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Mezzolara
1–1
D
27 Sep
@ Flaminia
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lucchese and San Donato Tavarnelle.
What is the prediction for Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Our pick is Lucchese or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
On our numbers Lucchese have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and San Donato Tavarnelle 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Our predicted score is Lucchese 2–0 San Donato Tavarnelle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Porta Elisa.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
