Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.18 – our chance 53% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultToledo to win ✓74% · @1.22
Double chanceToledo or draw ✓93% · fair 1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.18
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.04
Toledo vs Marchamalo prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Toledo v Marchamalo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18 – Sunday 8 November, 18:00 WAT. Toledo sit 2nd with 22 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Marchamalo are 13th on 12 (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Toledo – form over the last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat San Clemente 3–2 on the road. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are averaging 2.3 goals a game – a real threat going forward.
Marchamalo – form over the last 5: DLWLD Most recently they drew with Quintanar del Rey 3–3 at home. On their travels they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They score 1.7 and concede 2.3 per game.
On form, Toledo have the edge: 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Toledo 2.4 – 0.7 Marchamalo in expected goals – roughly 3.1 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Toledo 74% · draw 19% · Marchamalo 7%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.18.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.18 – we make it 53%, the price implies 46%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Toledo to win, rated at 74% confidence at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Toledo 2–0 Marchamalo. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Toledo74%fair 1.36 · @1.22
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @4.90
Marchamalo7%fair 14.12 · @10.25
3.13Expected goals
2.42Toledo xG
0.70Marchamalo xG
53%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toledo 2.4 – 0.7 Marchamalo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toledo to win✓
74%
1.36
1.22
Double chance
Toledo or draw✓
93%
1.08
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.18 ▲
Draw no bet
Toledo (draw no bet)✓
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
Toledo -1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.68
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.12
First team to score
Toledo to score first✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Toledo ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toledo / FT Toledo✓
51%
1.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
Toledo – last 6
WWLWWW
31 Oct
@ San Clemente
3–2
W
25 Oct
vs Almansa
2–0
W
17 Oct
@ Manchego
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Huracán Balazote
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ Villacañas
2–1
W
27 Sep
vs La Solana
4–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Marchamalo – last 6
DLWLDL
31 Oct
vs Quintanar del Rey
3–3
D
25 Oct
@ San Clemente
1–3
L
17 Oct
vs Socuéllamos
1–0
W
10 Oct
@ Almansa
1–3
L
3 Oct
vs Tarancón
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Manchego
2–3
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toledo and Marchamalo.
Our pick is Toledo to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Toledo vs Marchamalo?
On our numbers Toledo have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Marchamalo 7%.
How many goals will there be in Toledo vs Marchamalo?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toledo vs Marchamalo?
Our predicted score is Toledo 2–0 Marchamalo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Toledo vs Marchamalo?
Toledo vs Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
