It is Berceo v Alfaro in the Tercera División RFEF Group 16 – Sunday 8 November, 12:00 WAT. Berceo sit 6th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Alfaro are 3rd on 22 (in the top four).
Form guide
Berceo – form over the last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Calasancio 1–0 on the road. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 1.3 per game.
Alfaro – form over the last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Comillas 1–0 at home. On their travels they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.2 and concede 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
On form, Alfaro have the edge: 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Berceo 1.2 – 1.5 Alfaro in expected goals – roughly 2.8 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 51% for over 2.5, 60% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Berceo 32% · draw 22% · Alfaro 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.68.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 75% confidence at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Berceo 1–1 Alfaro. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Berceo32%fair 3.14 · @3.12
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.18
Alfaro46%fair 2.17 · @2.05
2.76Expected goals
1.22Berceo xG
1.54Alfaro xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Berceo 1.2 – 1.5 Alfaro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alfaro to win✓
46%
2.17
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.24
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.68
Draw no bet
Alfaro (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Berceo +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
Alfaro to score first✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alfaro / FT Alfaro✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.93
–
Recent results
Berceo – last 6
WLLWWW
31 Oct
@ Calasancio
1–0
W
25 Oct
vs Agoncillo
1–3
L
18 Oct
@ Oyonesa
0–2
L
11 Oct
vs La Calzada
5–1
W
4 Oct
@ Pradejón
2–1
W
27 Sep
vs San Marcial
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Alfaro – last 6
WLWWWW
1 Nov
vs Comillas
1–0
W
25 Oct
@ Varea
0–1
L
18 Oct
vs Vianés
1–0
W
11 Oct
@ Casalarreina
1–0
W
4 Oct
vs Calahorra
2–1
W
27 Sep
@ Anguiano
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Berceo and Alfaro.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Berceo vs Alfaro?
On our numbers Berceo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alfaro 46%.
How many goals will there be in Berceo vs Alfaro?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Berceo vs Alfaro?
Our predicted score is Berceo 1–1 Alfaro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Berceo vs Alfaro?
Berceo vs Alfaro (Tercera División RFEF Group 16) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
