Maria da Fonte 62%Draw 15%Ponte da Barca 23%Expected goals 1.66 – 0.81
62%
ZoraTips pick
Maria da Fonte to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.92 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.92Odds
Picks by market
ResultMaria da Fonte to win ✓62% · @1.92
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.57
Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A action on Sunday 8 November: Maria da Fonte take on Ponte da Barca from 16:00 WAT. Maria da Fonte sit 13th with 7 points from 8 games (in the bottom three), while Ponte da Barca are 10th on 10 (in the bottom half). The gap is just 3 points, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Maria da Fonte – form over the last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Montalegre 0–2 on the road. Goals have dried up: 0.7 per game.
Ponte da Barca – form over the last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Vinhais 2–1 at home. Goals have dried up: 0.8 per game.
On form, Ponte da Barca have the edge: 1.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Maria da Fonte 1.7 – 0.8 Ponte da Barca in expected goals – roughly 2.5 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 47% for over 2.5, 54% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Maria da Fonte 62% · draw 15% · Ponte da Barca 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.73.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Maria da Fonte to win, rated at 62% confidence at odds of 1.92, above our fair price of 1.60, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Maria da Fonte 1–0 Ponte da Barca. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Maria da Fonte62%fair 1.60 · @1.92
Draw15%fair 6.84 · @3.42
Ponte da Barca23%fair 4.35 · @3.24
2.48Expected goals
1.66Maria da Fonte xG
0.81Ponte da Barca xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Maria da Fonte 1.7 – 0.8 Ponte da Barca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Maria da Fonte to win✓
62%
1.60
1.92 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.17
1.21
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.73
Draw no bet
Maria da Fonte (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Ponte da Barca +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.26
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Maria da Fonte to score first
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Maria da Fonte / FT Maria da Fonte✓
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.57
–
Recent results
Maria da Fonte – last 6
LLDLLL
1 Nov
@ Montalegre
0–2
L
25 Oct
vs Bragança
1–2
L
11 Oct
@ Maia Lidador
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Paredes
1–5
L
13 Sep
vs SC Braga B
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Brito
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ponte da Barca – last 6
WWDLLL
1 Nov
vs Vinhais
2–1
W
25 Oct
@ Montalegre
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Rebordosa
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Amarante
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Bragança
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Os Limianos
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maria da Fonte and Ponte da Barca.
What is the prediction for Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?
Our pick is Maria da Fonte to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.92.
Who will win Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?
On our numbers Maria da Fonte have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Ponte da Barca 23%.
How many goals will there be in Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?
Our predicted score is Maria da Fonte 1–0 Ponte da Barca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?
Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
