Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar Prediction & Expected Goals (14 Nov) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFBC Melgar to win48% · @2.05

Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.68

Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

Alianza Atletico host FBC Melgar in the Primera División on Saturday 14 November, kicking off at 22:00 WAT at Estadio Campeones del 36. Alianza Atletico sit 7th with 28 points from 16 games (in the top half), while FBC Melgar are 5th on 29 (in the top half). The gap is just 1 point, so three points here could swap their places.

Form guide

Alianza Atletico – form over the last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to FC Cajamarca 0–2 on the road. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.5 and concede 2.2 per game.

FBC Melgar – form over the last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Juan Pablo II College 2–1 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 1.5 per game.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished FBC Melgar 3–1 Alianza Atletico.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Alianza Atletico 1.2 – 1.6 FBC Melgar in expected goals – roughly 2.9 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 55% for over 2.5, 59% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

Match result chances: Alianza Atletico 31% · draw 21% · FBC Melgar 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.

ZoraTips prediction

Our tip: Over 1.5 goals, rated at 77% confidence at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alianza Atletico 1–1 FBC Melgar. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Alianza Atletico31%fair 3.27 · @3.20

Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40

FBC Melgar48%fair 2.06 · @2.05

2.88Expected goals

1.24Alianza Atletico xG

1.64FBC Melgar xG

59%Both score

55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

1–29%

0–19%

0–28%

2–17%

1–07%

From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.2 – 1.6 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	FBC Melgar to win	48%	2.06	2.05
Double chance	Either team to win	79%	1.27	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	59%	1.69	1.62
Draw no bet	FBC Melgar (draw no bet)	61%	1.63	–
Asian handicap	Alianza Atletico +1 (Asian handicap)	69%	1.46	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.29	1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.83	1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	67%	1.50	1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	83%	1.20	1.14
First team to score	FBC Melgar to score first	54%	1.86	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time	40%	2.47	–
Half-time / full-time	HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar	28%	3.55	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	9%	10.68	–

Alianza Atletico – last 6

LWWLLW

7 Nov	@ FC Cajamarca	0–2	L
31 Oct	vs Juan Pablo II College	1–0	W
28 Oct	vs Deportivo Garcilaso	3–2	W
24 Oct	@ Sport Huancayo	1–4	L
18 Oct	vs Universitario	1–4	L
11 Oct	@ Sport Boys	3–1	W

1.5Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

FBC Melgar – last 6

WLDWWD

8 Nov	vs Juan Pablo II College	2–1	W
2 Nov	@ Sport Huancayo	0–2	L
30 Oct	vs Comerciantes Unidos	1–1	D
23 Oct	@ UTC Cajamarca	2–1	W
18 Oct	vs Deportivo Garcilaso	4–2	W
11 Oct	@ Universitario	2–2	D

1.8Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	20	9	4	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	17	10	6	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	16	7	10	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	16	3	14	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	-1	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	13	9	11	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	12	10	11	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	8	13	12	-3	37
14	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	-9	37
15	ADT	33	7	11	15	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	7	9	17	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	5	9	19	-20	19

Team

Pts

+30

+20

+18

+15

+15

-1

-1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

-12

Sport Boys

Juan Pablo II College

-11

-3

-9

-12

-19

-21

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?

On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FBC Melgar 48%.

How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?

Our predicted score is Alianza Atletico 1–1 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?

Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones del 36.

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Alianza Atletico v FBC Melgar: numbers & prediction