Wed 11 Nov

Wales v Portugal: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Wales

LWLLL
Tue 17 Nov 2026

Portugal

WWWWL
Wales 18%Draw 16%Portugal 65% Expected goals 0.93 – 2.05
65%
ZoraTips pick

Portugal to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.28

6/10Rating
1.28Odds

Picks by market

ResultPortugal to win65% · @1.28
Double chanceEither team to win84% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.68
GoalsOver 1.5 goals80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.08

Wales vs Portugal prediction, preview and tip

Match overview

UEFA Nations League action on Tuesday 17 November: Wales take on Portugal from 20:45 WAT. Wales sit 3rd with 3 points from 4 games, while Portugal are 1st on 12.

Form guide

Wales – form over the last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Denmark 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.7 per game.

Portugal – form over the last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Norway 2–1 at home. They score 1.8 and concede 1.0 per game.

On form, Portugal have the edge: 2.5 points a game against 0.7.

Previous meetings

Their most recent meeting, on 24 Sep 2026, finished Portugal 1–0 Wales.

Goals outlook

Our model projects Wales 0.9 – 2.1 Portugal in expected goals – roughly 3.0 goals in all. That points to goals: over 2.5 is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time.

Betting angles

  • Match result chances: Wales 18% · draw 16% · Portugal 65%.
  • Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.68.

ZoraTips prediction

ZoraTips tip: Portugal to win, rated at 65% confidence at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Wales 0–2 Portugal. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.

Result chances

Wales18%fair 5.45 · @8.15
Draw16%fair 6.17 · @5.59
Portugal65%fair 1.53 · @1.28
2.98Expected goals
0.93Wales xG
2.05Portugal xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%

From our goals model: Wales 0.9 – 2.1 Portugal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPortugal to win65%1.531.28
Double chanceEither team to win84%1.191.06
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score59%1.691.68
Draw no betPortugal (draw no bet)78%1.28–
Asian handicapPortugal -0.5 (Asian handicap)63%1.58–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals80%1.25–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals62%1.631.39
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals61%1.651.63
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals78%1.281.22
First team to scorePortugal to score first65%1.53–
Half-time resultPortugal ahead at half-time46%2.17–
Half-time / full-timeHT Portugal / FT Portugal41%2.46–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%10.08–

Recent results

Wales – last 6

LWLLLD
4 Octvs Denmark0–1L
1 Octvs Norway2–1W
27 Sep@ Denmark0–2L
24 Sep@ Portugal0–1L
6 Jun@ Romania1–2L
2 Junvs Ghana1–1D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Portugal – last 6

WWWWLW
4 Octvs Norway2–1W
1 Oct@ Denmark4–2W
27 Sep@ Norway2–1W
24 Sepvs Wales1–0W
6 Julvs Spain0–1L
3 Julvs Croatia2–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 Sep 2026Portugal v Wales1–0
Wales vs Portugal head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugal4400+512
2Denmark420206
3Wales4103-33
4Norway4103-23

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Denmark Norway 143%2.39X19%3.92238%2.39 1.7–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 68%@1.42
Ukraine Georgia 144%2.39X21%3.49236%2.58 1.1–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.26
Hungary Northern Ireland 159%1.83X21%3.38220%4.11 1.2–0.5xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 67%@1.52
Israel Austria 119%4.26X20%4.11261%1.65 1.0–2.0xG 2Austria to win 61%@1.65
Rep. Of Ireland Kosovo 165%1.87X21%3.39214%3.92 1.6–0.6xG 1Rep. Of Ireland to win 65%@1.87
Poland Sweden 138%2.28X19%3.74242%2.59 1.4–1.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 67%@1.40
Bosnia & Herzegovina Romania 159%1.72X21%3.71220%4.27 1.9–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Wales vs Portugal?

Our pick is Portugal to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Wales vs Portugal?

On our numbers Wales have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Portugal 65%.

How many goals will there be in Wales vs Portugal?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Wales vs Portugal?

Our predicted score is Wales 0–2 Portugal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Wales vs Portugal?

Wales vs Portugal (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.