Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.33Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✓74% · @1.14
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓91% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.87
Flamengo vs Gremio prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Flamengo host Gremio in the Serie A on Wednesday 4 November, kicking off at 23:30 WAT at Estádio do Maracanã. Flamengo sit 1st with 76 points from 34 games (top of the table), while Gremio are 18th on 37 (in the bottom three). A 39-point gap separates them – two very different campaigns.
Form guide
Flamengo – form over the last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Vasco DA Gama 4–1 on the road. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
Gremio – form over the last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Atletico-MG 2–0 at home. They score 1.5 and concede 1.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
On form, Flamengo have the edge: 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Gremio 0–1 Flamengo.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Flamengo 2.5 – 0.8 Gremio in expected goals – roughly 3.3 goals in all. Expect chances at both ends – 67% for over 2.5 goals, 56% for GG.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Flamengo 74% · draw 16% · Gremio 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – we make it 56%, the price implies 51%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 2.5 goals, rated at 67% confidence at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Flamengo 3–0 Gremio. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Flamengo74%fair 1.34 · @1.14
Draw16%fair 6.21 · @8.00
Gremio9%fair 10.62 · @17.00
3.25Expected goals
2.48Flamengo xG
0.77Gremio xG
56%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
3–010%
1–010%
2–19%
3–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.5 – 0.8 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Flamengo vs Gremio?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Gremio 9%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Gremio?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 3–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Gremio?
Flamengo vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
