Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.09
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Atletico Paranaense v Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A – Wednesday 4 November, 23:30 WAT, Arena da Baixada. Atletico Paranaense sit 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Vasco DA Gama are 13th on 41 (in the bottom half). A 13-point gap separates them – two very different campaigns.
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense – form over the last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Gremio 0–2 on the road. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.5 and concede 1.5 per game.
Vasco DA Gama – form over the last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Palmeiras 0–1 on the road. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 1.8 per game.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 11 May 2026, finished Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.5 – 1.3 Vasco DA Gama in expected goals – roughly 2.8 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 52% for over 2.5, 57% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Atletico Paranaense 45% · draw 21% · Vasco DA Gama 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 3.50 – we make it 34%, the price implies 29%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 76% confidence at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense45%fair 2.21 · @2.05
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.40
Vasco DA Gama34%fair 2.98 · @3.50
2.77Expected goals
1.51Atletico Paranaense xG
1.25Vasco DA Gama xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.5 – 1.3 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vasco DA Gama 34%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
