Value bet: Italy U21 to win @ 2.02 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultItaly U21 to win53% · @2.02
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.81
Italy U21 vs Belgium U21 prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Friendlies action on Monday 16 November: Italy U21 take on Belgium U21 from 18:15 WAT.
Form guide
Italy U21 – form over the last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat France U21 2–1 on the road. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are averaging 3.0 goals a game – a real threat going forward. 4 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
Belgium U21 – form over the last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Germany U21 2–1 on the road. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
On form, Italy U21 have the edge: 3.0 points a game against 2.2.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Italy U21 1.5 – 1.0 Belgium U21 in expected goals – roughly 2.5 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 48% for over 2.5, 57% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Italy U21 53% · draw 22% · Belgium U21 25%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Italy U21 to win at 2.02 – we make it 53%, the price implies 50%.
ZoraTips prediction
ZoraTips tip: Under 3.5 goals, rated at 73% confidence at odds of 1.31. Predicted score: Italy U21 1–0 Belgium U21. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Italy U2153%fair 1.90 · @2.02
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.18
Belgium U2125%fair 3.94 · @3.20
2.46Expected goals
1.51Italy U21 xG
0.96Belgium U21 xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Italy U21 1.5 – 1.0 Belgium U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (ZoraTips)
Italy U21
Belgium U21
Attack vs Friendlies average
+6%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-6%
Our expected goals here
1.55
1.01
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy U21 to win
53%
1.90
2.02 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.24
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.74
1.65
Draw no bet
Italy U21 (draw no bet)
67%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Belgium U21 +1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.23
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.86
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.31
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.08
First team to score
Italy U21 to score first
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy U21 / FT Italy U21
30%
3.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.81
–
Recent results
Italy U21 – last 6
WWWWWW
13 Nov
@ France U21
2–1
W
5 Oct
vs Poland U21
6–2
W
1 Oct
@ Armenia U21
1–0
W
8 Jun
vs Albania U21
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ Sweden U21
4–0
W
26 Mar
vs North Macedonia U21
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Belgium U21 – last 6
WDWWLW
13 Nov
@ Germany U21
2–1
W
6 Oct
@ Denmark U21
0–0
D
29 Sep
vs Wales U21
1–0
W
24 Sep
vs Belarus U21
1–0
W
30 Mar
@ Netherlands U21
1–2
L
27 Mar
vs Austria U21
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Italy U21 and Belgium U21.
What is the prediction for Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
On our numbers Italy U21 have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Belgium U21 25%.
How many goals will there be in Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
Our predicted score is Italy U21 1–0 Belgium U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Italy U21 vs Belgium U21?
Italy U21 vs Belgium U21 (Friendlies) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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