Defensor Sporting vs Penarol prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
It is Defensor Sporting v Penarol in the Primera División Apertura – Monday 16 November, 00:00 WAT, Estadio Luis Franzini. Defensor Sporting sit 13th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Penarol are 5th on 22 (in the top half).
Form guide
Defensor Sporting – form over the last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Progreso 2–0 on the road. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They score 1.5 and concede 1.8 per game.
Penarol – form over the last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Wanderers 1–1 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up: 0.5 per game.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished Defensor Sporting 0–2 Penarol. Across the last 2 meetings Defensor Sporting have won 0s, Penarol 1, with 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals, with both sides scoring 1 time.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Defensor Sporting 0.8 – 1.7 Penarol in expected goals – roughly 2.5 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 48% for over 2.5, 51% for both teams to score. Recent games involving both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Defensor Sporting 18% · draw 20% · Penarol 63%.
Safer play: Penarol or draw (82%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
ZoraTips prediction
Our tip: Under 3.5 goals, rated at 73% confidence at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting18%fair 5.63 · @4.75
Draw20%fair 5.11 · @3.60
Penarol63%fair 1.60 · @1.60
2.51Expected goals
0.76Defensor Sporting xG
1.75Penarol xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 0.8 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Penarol 63%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
