Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win59% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.97
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Danubio host Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 15 November, kicking off at 20:30 WAT. Danubio sit 14th with 10 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Liverpool Montevideo are 1st on 30 (top of the table). A 20-point gap separates them – two very different campaigns.
Form guide
Danubio – form over the last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Club Nacional 1–2 at home. They are averaging 2.0 goals a game – a real threat going forward. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
Liverpool Montevideo – form over the last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Juventud 1–1 at home. They score 1.3 and concede 0.2 per game. 5 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
On form, Liverpool Montevideo have the edge: 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Danubio 0.8 – 1.6 Liverpool Montevideo in expected goals – roughly 2.3 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 43% for over 2.5, 51% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Danubio 21% · draw 20% · Liverpool Montevideo 59%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Liverpool Montevideo to win at 1.80 – we make it 59%, the price implies 56%.
ZoraTips prediction
ZoraTips tip: Under 3.5 goals, rated at 77% confidence at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Danubio 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Danubio21%fair 4.85 · @3.90
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.30
Liverpool Montevideo59%fair 1.70 · @1.80
2.33Expected goals
0.76Danubio xG
1.57Liverpool Montevideo xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–212%
1–112%
0–010%
1–29%
1–07%
From our goals model: Danubio 0.8 – 1.6 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
80%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.98
1.91
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Danubio +1.5 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.12
1.08
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.97
–
Recent results
Danubio – last 6
LWLWWL
1 Nov
vs Club Nacional
1–2
L
30 Oct
@ Wanderers Durazno
3–0
W
24 Oct
@ Deportivo Maldonado
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Central Espanol
1–0
W
15 Oct
@ Central Espanol
6–0
W
9 Oct
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
DWWWWW
11 Nov
vs Juventud
1–1
D
5 Nov
@ Gladiador
2–0
W
3 Nov
vs Juventud
2–0
W
25 Oct
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
21 Oct
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Penarol
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Danubio have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Liverpool Montevideo 59%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Danubio 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
