Cerro Largo 59%Draw 26%Progreso 15%Expected goals 1.66 – 0.71
85%
ZoraTips pick
Cerro Largo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Cerro Largo to win @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCerro Largo to win59% · @1.80
Double chanceCerro Largo or draw85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.47
Cerro Largo vs Progreso prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Primera División Apertura action on Friday 13 November: Cerro Largo take on Progreso at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla from 00:00 WAT. Cerro Largo sit 15th with 9 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Progreso are 7th on 19 (in the top half).
Form guide
Cerro Largo – form over the last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Racing Montevideo 1–3 on the road. Goals have dried up: 0.8 per game.
Progreso – form over the last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Defensor Sporting 0–2 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.3 and concede 1.2 per game.
On form, Progreso have the edge: 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Previous meetings
Their most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Progreso 0–1 Cerro Largo.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Cerro Largo 1.7 – 0.7 Progreso in expected goals – roughly 2.4 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 44% for over 2.5, 49% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Cerro Largo 59% · draw 26% · Progreso 15%.
Safer play: Cerro Largo or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Cerro Largo to win at 1.80 – we make it 59%, the price implies 56%.
ZoraTips prediction
We back Cerro Largo or draw, rated at 85% confidence at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, which makes it a value price. Predicted score: Cerro Largo 1–0 Progreso. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Cerro Largo59%fair 1.69 · @1.80
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.30
Progreso15%fair 6.73 · @4.10
2.37Expected goals
1.66Cerro Largo xG
0.71Progreso xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 1.7 – 0.7 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Our pick is Cerro Largo or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Progreso 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Cerro Largo vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
