Sarmiento de La Banda 40%Draw 24%Alvarado 35%Expected goals 1.06 – 0.97
67%
ZoraTips pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.37 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.37Odds
2
Value bet: Alvarado to win @ 3.12 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSarmiento de La Banda to win ✓40% · @2.27
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.56
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.09
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.15
Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Sarmiento de La Banda host Alvarado in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 8 November, kicking off at 19:00 WAT. Sarmiento de La Banda sit 13th with 25 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Alvarado are 5th on 27 (in the top half). The gap is just 2 points, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Sarmiento de La Banda – form over the last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Atenas 2–4 on the road. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 1.7 per game.
Alvarado – form over the last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Sportivo Las Parejas 1–2 at home. On their travels they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.0 and concede 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Sarmiento de La Banda 1.1 – 1.0 Alvarado in expected goals – roughly 2.0 goals in all. This looks a tight one: under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Sarmiento de La Banda 40% · draw 24% · Alvarado 35%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.56.
Value angle: Alvarado to win at 3.12 – we make it 35%, the price implies 32%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Under 2.5 goals, rated at 67% confidence at odds of 1.37. Predicted score: Sarmiento de La Banda 1–0 Alvarado. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Sarmiento de La Banda40%fair 2.48 · @2.27
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @2.76
Alvarado35%fair 2.82 · @3.12
2.02Expected goals
1.06Sarmiento de La Banda xG
0.97Alvarado xG
49%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–114%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Sarmiento de La Banda 1.1 – 1.0 Alvarado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarmiento de La Banda to win✓
40%
2.48
2.27
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.32
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.56
Draw no bet
Sarmiento de La Banda (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Alvarado +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.56
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.37
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.09
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Sarmiento de La Banda to score first✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.15
–
Recent results
Sarmiento de La Banda – last 6
LWDDLL
1 Nov
@ Atenas
2–4
L
25 Oct
vs Atenas
3–0
W
18 Oct
vs Sportivo Belgrano
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Sportivo Belgrano
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Defensores de Belgrano VR
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ San Martin Formosa
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alvarado – last 6
LWDLWD
1 Nov
vs Sportivo Las Parejas
1–2
L
25 Oct
@ Sportivo Las Parejas
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Cipolletti
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Cipolletti
0–1
L
4 Oct
vs Defensores de Belgrano VR
2–0
W
27 Sep
@ Defensores de Belgrano VR
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarmiento de La Banda and Alvarado.
What is the prediction for Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?
On our numbers Sarmiento de La Banda have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alvarado 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?
Our predicted score is Sarmiento de La Banda 1–0 Alvarado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado?
Sarmiento de La Banda vs Alvarado (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
