Value bet: Almería II to win @ 2.67 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlmería II to win ✗40% · @2.67
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.28
Motril vs Almería II prediction, preview and tip
Match overview
Tercera División RFEF Group 9 action on Sunday 8 November: Motril take on Almería II from 17:00 WAT. Motril sit 6th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Almería II are 4th on 19 (in the top four). The gap is just 2 points, so three points here could swap their places.
Form guide
Motril – form over the last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Granada II 1–1 on the road. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They score 1.8 and concede 1.3 per game.
Almería II – form over the last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Churriana Vega 0–0 at home. They score 1.7 and concede 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that stretch point to a solid back line.
Goals outlook
Our model projects Motril 1.2 – 1.3 Almería II in expected goals – roughly 2.4 goals in all. Goals could go either way – 43% for over 2.5, 52% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Match result chances: Motril 36% · draw 24% · Almería II 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Almería II to win at 2.67 – we make it 40%, the price implies 37%.
Our tip before kick-off
Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals, rated at 69% confidence at odds of 1.34. Predicted score: Motril 1–1 Almería II. Graded on the 90-minute score. No tip is certain – 18+ only, stake responsibly.
Result chances
Motril36%fair 2.77 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.94
Almería II40%fair 2.48 · @2.67
2.42Expected goals
1.17Motril xG
1.25Almería II xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Motril 1.2 – 1.3 Almería II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almería II to win✗
40%
2.48
2.67 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Draw no bet
Almería II (draw no bet)
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Motril +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.34
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Almería II to score first✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almería II / FT Almería II✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.28
–
Recent results
Motril – last 6
DLWDWW
1 Nov
@ Granada II
1–1
D
25 Oct
vs Málaga II
2–4
L
18 Oct
@ Cantoria
2–0
W
11 Oct
vs Atlético Porcuna
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ UD San Pedro
3–2
W
27 Sep
vs Alhaurino
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Almería II – last 6
DDWWDW
1 Nov
vs Churriana Vega
0–0
D
25 Oct
vs Atletico de Marbella
2–2
D
18 Oct
@ Granada II
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Málaga II
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Cantoria
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Atlético Porcuna
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Motril and Almería II.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.
Who will win Motril vs Almería II?
On our numbers Motril have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Almería II 40%.
How many goals will there be in Motril vs Almería II?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Motril vs Almería II?
Our predicted score is Motril 1–1 Almería II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Motril vs Almería II?
Motril vs Almería II (Tercera División RFEF Group 9) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from ZoraTips' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
